Monday 1 April 2024

Day 3 quick bets

Rock/Smith - Got quite excited when I saw Rock being quoted at 2/1 on oddschecker on VC, but naturally that was quickly corrected to 11/8, that I don't think is an awful play with there not being much of anything to choose between the players and I'll go small, 0.1u Rock 11/8 which is also there on 365, I would probably go a bit larger if I could get longer than 6/4 given how good Smith looked in round two.

Price/Searle - Not touching it, I'm seeing Ryan as having a touch over a one in three shot, and he's best priced at 7/4 so nothing doing here.

Cross/Noppert - Maybe there's a sliver of value on Rob in this one, I'm seeing him just shy of a two in three chance, and some of the spread companies have him at longer than 4/6, if you've got money there then I don't think that's bad, but the traditional bookies aren't giving better than 4/6 which isn't quite fat enough particularly in the context of Danny looking fantastic in round two.

Humphries/Joyce - Line looks fair enough, Joyce being priced at 3/1 I think is a fair enough reflection that he's a good player but running into probably the best player in the world right now, maybe he should be a tick or two shorter but that's neither here nor there and 3/1 certainly doesn't represent value. Might have a tiny dabble on the exchange if we can get bigger possibly.

Aspinall/Smith - Another one where I was momentarily excited when I saw oddschecker's front page showing 6/5, which when I'm seeing the game the other way around would provide enough of an edge to fire, but going in we're not actually getting better than evens, which I don't think is dreadful or -EV, but it's close enough to correct to ignore as a punt.

Schindler/Dobey - Chris is maybe ever so slightly shorter than he ought to be, this is one of the few matches we're likely to see at this stage where we've got someone who is maybe a little overvalued against someone who is a little undervalued, and a partizan home crowd would certainly help Schindler, but that's Dobey's best price. We can't get better than 11/8 on Martin, which is just break even and we're not interested in betting for the sake of betting without a better edge than "bet Germans in Germany".

van Gerwen/Cullen - Line looks fair enough again. Joe's a touch longer than 2/1, we've got him at a touch less than a 30% chance, but there's enough data points to show that Joe might be a tad better than the projections say. Certainly not enough to make us even remotely think that 11/5 is a good bet though.

Chisnall/Wattimena - We finish with another no bet. The angle we'd be looking at is on Dave, 4/9 is maybe a little bit undervaluing just how good he has been playing for the last year or so, and he is the most recent Pro Tour winner, so if you want to go for it, there's tiny value there. I won't recommend it as an actual play as Jermaine's shown enough over the first couple of Euro Tours to indicate he may be playing a bit better than the numbers suggest, but I can't think that price is in anyway bad if you want to bet on Chisnall.

So just the one play, and we're back to Josh Rock. Is it 2022 again?

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