Sunday 21 April 2024

ET4 round 3

What an incredible display that was from everyone yesterday. I'm just looking at the numbers, I was watching El Crapico and didn't actually see any of it personally, but that's got to be close to, if not the best, days of European Tour ever, especially notable since it was only the Saturday, and we've got a great lineup today. On the betting I think we were a tad unlucky, Clemens winning got us out for relatively minor damage, but a combination of Clayton playing the best he has done in ages to even put Dobey into a position where he can miss three clear at double for a leg, including in the decider, is an unfortunate combination, Mansell did not play badly at all, it's just that Heta was playing so well he would have beaten anyone with that display, then Barney was able to take things all the way, if never looking like actually winning the match, although he had left himself on a two darter after twelve, so to ask the question of the other player in that spot I guess I'll take. Eight games today, what do we like?

Rock/Smith - Josh really wasn't in top gear against Sparidaans but didn't really need to be, Smith was pretty good but couldn't really put Barney away, my data literally cannot split the two (they're so close that a world final would be 50% to two decimal places), so if I lean either way I lean Rock, given a small consistency edge and the odds against tag, although he'll need to up his game from yesterday I feel. If it was any longer I'd probably take a small stab.

Anderson/Price - Two players who played back to back and both looked equally dangerous meet up for the latest encounter of a fabled series of matches. Market is having real trouble separating the two, but is perhaps surprisingly putting Price as the marginal favourite. I think there's close to a bet here - if you have Sporting Index and can get the 11/10 go with it, if anyone offered 6/5 then I think that's enough to go larger, but for now I'll just go 0.1u Anderson 21/20 on Coralbrokes/Betfred for a game that looks 55/45 in Gary's favour.

Noppert/Cross - Danny had another very solid game against Gurney, not really putting a step wrong at any point, while Rob needed all eleven legs to see off Schindler, coming from 3-1 down to fire in three twelve dart or better legs in a spell of four then holding out. Looks to be Cross for me, slap bang in the middle of 60% and two in three chances, which I think is enough chances at the prices to go small, 0.1u Cross 3/4 again on Coralbrokes, 8/11 is probably also fine but 4/6 isn't enough.

Humphries/Bunting - Luke came through a great 6-5 game against Littler, while Bunting dodged a bullet (see what I did there) against Ryan Searle to also come through in a decider. Stephen's doing enough to get just over 35% win chances, there's only really the spread companies that are offering better than 2/1 and that's only just, I'd probably need north of 9/4 before I could really start going against Humphries in this one.

Edhouse/Smith - Ritchie continues a push towards what looked like an optimistic Matchplay slot but is now looking more realistic with a steady win over a bit of a below par DvD, but 6-1 is still no joke, while Ross was another comfortable early winner, having 2-3 poor legs but not really being threatened seriously by Luke Woodhouse. Edhouse is full of confidence but Smith is no joke and I'm seeing him as right in the middle of the 70% to 75% range, which gives us a fairly easy bet, 0.25u Smith 8/13 on Betfred, 4/7 I think is just about close to enough as well, anything the right side of 1/2 I think is alright.

Williams/Heta - Scott had a very solid game, just the slow first leg in the first game of the day but otherwise barely slipped at all against Ratajski, while Heta was unplayable against Mansell in maybe the performance of the day where there were a LOT of contenders. Heta looks about a 65/35 shot here, so with the relative level of play yesterday, Damon generally being just a touch shorter than 1/2 at best seems fine to me.

van Gerwen/Clayton - Michael did a more than professional job in seeing off Johan Engstrom for the loss of just the one leg, while Clayton nicked a decider against Dobey in, as stated, maybe the best game he's played all year. MvG is obviously much the better player at this stage, looks like a 70% to 75% punt again, so 4/11 appears close to a perfect line.

Chisnall/Clemens - Dave was fairly sluggish but came through a equally mediocre Keane Barry in possibly the only real damp squib of a game yesterday, while Clemens beat Pietreczko 6-2, a poor first two legs aside he was completely on it. Chizzy only looks about a 55/45 favourite here, so with the German crowd, the 6/4 we're getting offered on Clemens is extremely close to being worth it. I'd probably only need one more tick, 13/8 would be a go.

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