Thursday 25 April 2024

Austria round one

Apologies if this is brief, but it's late and I have no confidence in being able to be awake before the off, so I'm going to rapid through the games not involving the HNQ's, for one I can't see lines on oddschecker, for two the performances are such that I don't want to touch it. Lerchbacher was awful. Haberl had flashes but meh. Schnier did nothing, and while Goedl was probably the best, it wasn't great, I'll check (if I'm awake) for any sort of outlier lines putting him hugely odds against versus Dom Taylor, but other than that it's just a waste of four games.

Nijman/Grbavac - not enough information, line seems relatively sensible.
de Zwaan/Sedlacek - Karel being slightly favoured doesn't seem silly. If he's on, he's better right now. If he's not, he's worse. In the middle, it's tight. No real interest here.
Lauby/Joyce - 0.5u Joyce 4/9, he's just playing so, so much better right now with a win chance looking more like 1/5 than this line that I'm happy to push the boat out a tad here.
Veenstra/Evans - this is a flip, simple as. Veenstra at 6/5 is the side you want to aim at, it's kind of close to a play but it's not quite there. Ricky has got better of late in fairness.
Labanauskas/Razma - lol this draw, the line seems kind of fine on a very quick glance having decent enough data on Darius still, which is good as I don't want to have to consider this one too much.
Monk/Edhouse - Monk might have slightly more chances than the odds suggest, market may be getting slightly ahead of itself but not by much.
Lukeman/Gurney - getting into the evening session where we have a lot of bigger names against each other and have good data, sadly so do the bookies. Maybe Lukeman is fractionally undervalued, but it's incredibly fractional.
de Sousa/van Veen - Jose still has enough about him to rate to get about 40% of the wins here. That's where the line is at, so no bet.
Hall/Dobey - line looks just about right. Hall has enough to nick this in the low 20% range. With the market as it is, that's of no interest.
Schindler/Wade - 0.25u Schindler 8/13 on Coralbrokes right now looks a damn good bet. He's over 70% for me. Nick it while you can.
van Barneveld/de Decker - this is tight. I'm seeing Mike as slightly better, as is the market, I'm seeing it as slightly more in favour of de Decker but it's too marginal to punt.
van den Bergh/Clemens - standard flip, market can't really separate, if anything I've got Gabriel as a tad better whereas the market has it the other way around so taking Clemens I guess is no worse than neutral EV.

So not much here, I may throw up a one line post if I see Taylor/Goedl lines that look comical tomorrow afternoon but don't bank on it.

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