Saturday 27 April 2024

Austria round two

Going to have to be really quick here. Yesterday was super unfortunate where the thing we thought might happen 15-20% of the time did happen, a perfect storm of Joyce not scoring at his best, missing with three clear at double to force a decider with the darts, and Lauby hitting multiple three figure checkouts. Schindler clawed back some of it, but that does undo some of the good work in the last few tournaments. Let's see if we can get back on track today.

Ratajski/Taylor - Dom's pretty good, but may already be at the spot where he's a bit overrated? Or Krzysztof is still underrated? If we could get even slightly better than 4/6 on Ratajski, I'd go with it, and wouldn't blame you if you just went with it anyway.
Noppert/Nijman - 0.1u Nijman 8/5. Kid is really good. Probably actually projects to win more than Noppert does. Only small because I still feel Wessel has yet to make a "statement" win, but this could be it.
van Duijvenbode/Edhouse - Redo, boring. Ritchie's form is very good, but Dirk is still the better player. 0.1u van Duijvenbode 20/21
Bunting/Veenstra - Veenstra is slightly better than what the line suggests. But only slightly. Fair would be 7/4 as opposed to 2/1 so edge isn't quite there.
Searle/van Veen - Correctly priced tight. Correctly priced with Ryan having the small edge.
Cullen/Labanauskas - 0.1u Labanauskas 11/4, Joe doesn't seem to be in the right place given recent comments, Darius projects as winning more than one in three, we've got a great price, so let's take the stab.
Cross/Gurney - Looks like a pretty standard better player wins two out of three times line. As such this is really close to a play on Rob with 8/13 available in one place.
Chisnall/Dolan - The line looks alright on this one as well, which is odd seeing how I'd have expected to get 6/4 on Brendan despite Dolan actually projecting just over 40%.
Pietreczko/Schindler - Schindi continues to be underrated. Even as a 2/1 on favourite against a seed. I mean it's not enough to fire, but having a fraction over a 70% chance, it's kind of close to it.
Klose/Gilding - How the fuck does Daniel Klose get in here? That is a bit of a weird ruling, but whatever, line actually looks alright, maybe Daniel could actually be a tick or two shorter but it's not enough for a bet.
Smith/van Barneveld - Line seems fine here again. Ross is good enough to have a 60-65% chance against the multiple world champion, as such maybe it could even be shaded even more in his favour, but only just.
Rock/van den Bergh - Another good line. Dimi's doing enough that he's only a 45/55 dog, Josh is 4/5, let's move on.
van Gerwen/de Zwaan - Another redo from a few weeks ago. 4/1's about the right price though.
Wright/Lauby - Wow, that line on Coralbrokes is really short. I have to think that will be palped, regardless of how bad Peter is playing. I remain unconvinced by Danny, 0.25u Wright 8/15, he should win this more than three in four.
Clayton/Dobey - We fired on this one last week at 8/13. Now we can only get 8/15. That's still undervaluing Dobey, but it's close enough to correct that with Jonny maybe showing a bit more last week that we can pass on it.
Heta/Littler - What a game to finish, but another one where the line looks alright, Luke projects just over two in three and is 4/9.

So four bets, we go back to the laying Lauby well, a couple of other real close ones. Let's go.

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