Sunday 31 March 2024

Day 3 thoughts

Small profit today, basically cancels out the day one losses. Joyce and Schindler played great, Menzies also played fantastic but just ran into probably a top 10% sort of level performance from Smith which you can't really do a great deal about. Still feel convinced Cameron is going to maintain solid betting value for the foreseeable future, at least until he binks something which is surely going to be sooner rather than later if he just maintains his level of play.

Not got lines out for most games yet, certainly oddschecker isn't up, so will just run through the thoughts quickly with a raw projection for each:

Rock/Smith - 53/47, seems realistic, Smith looked great today as mentioned above, Josh was alright but mostly doing enough against Veenstra, don't expect this one to differ too much from evens but we'll see.

Price/Searle - 63/37, game for Gerwyn looked closer than it actually was, scoreline for Ryan was the same but Searle definitely played worse today, thought the projection might put Searle a bit closer but I guess not.

Cross/Noppert - 65/35, Rob still real good, no issues against Gurney, Noppert however looked incredible against van Veen, who also might have put up the best losing performance we've ever seen. Ought to be a cracker.

Humphries/Joyce - 72/28, Luke was also up there with Noppert and Smith in terms of the best performance of the day but that's kind of just expected now, Joyce just hit consistent five visit kills which if continued tomorrow is going to be tricky for Luke to live with.

Aspinall/Smith - 46/54, Nathan didn't do a great deal wrong, but got a few too many legs in more than five visits which a player on top form could punish. Smith isn't necessarily at his peak game based on yesterday, but certainly isn't out of form so this should be tight.

Schindler/Dobey - 44/56, Martin routed Heta while Chris put in a very solid showing against Ratajski, don't think it's unreasonable to say that Dobey is the better player, but it's not by that much.

van Gerwen/Cullen - 71/29, Michael was generally pretty steady in his game with de Zwaan which could have been more lopsided than it actually was, while Cullen only really had the one moderately poor leg in a comfortable win over Clayton. This might play out a tad closer than the projection.

Chisnall/Wattimena - 74/26 - Dave shut down a really poor Dimitri, especially compared to yesterday, seems a miracle with how he played that DvdB managed four legs, while Jermaine continues a great start to the year with a solid win over Bunting, the key thing being nicking the scrappy legs. Another one that might be a tad closer than the projection.

Will fire out any bets in the morning, but don't expect anything for the quarters onwards because football.

No comments:

Post a Comment