Saturday 2 March 2024

Round 5 bets

Going to have to be really quick here, but good job on the DC team on stitching together the Gates/Lukeman data.

Bets are:

0.25u Anderson 8/13, that implies only just over 60% whereas I have him at around two in three, this ordinarily wouldn't be enough but his form is so red hot I can push it up enough to bet
0.1u Woodhouse 5/2, came through a good game yesterday, Smith has some questions about him, Luke's good enough to win this more than 35% of the time so I'll happily go for a flier at 5/2
0.1u Schindler 16/5, probably going to be the case where we autolay Littler for a while, Schindler's projecting well into the high 30% range and has already beaten one very good player this weekend

Not touching:

Usher/van Veen - Usher probably still a bit underrated but back to back upsets seem unlikely and it's only a small edge anyway
Clayton/Smith - Clayton probably tiny value but not enough edge to feel comfortable
Evans/de Decker - Correctly the market has this close with the Belgian being the tiny favourite
Noppert/Lukeman - Feels like close on Noppert, he's not quite 65% but he's a lot nearer there than the 60% 4/6 implies
Cross/Rock - Seems rare that we see a match where we don't pick Rock these days. He's still the value but Cross is in a decent enough vein of form to nullify much of the betting edge on seasonal data
Chisnall/Suljovic - Was really cool to see Mensur get maybe one last huge TV win, but the line seems right and Dave should be good solidly over 70% of the time
Barry/Meikle - This ought to be interesting but I think the assessment that Keane has a moderate edge is correct
Bunting/Doets - Think it's more one in four rather than one in five that Kevin's got here, but we can't touch his price
Heta/Aspinall - Was surprised to see Nathan favoured in the data model, and by more than the market thinks. Not enough more to bet though, should only be 4/6 not 4/5 that sort of thing
Ratajski/King - If anything Krzysztof should be a bit more favoured than the solid favourite he is, but King looked good yesterday so we'll give him credit for that
Wright/Gilding - Really want to take Andrew here. He has course and distance, Wright is slumping, and the price is extremely close. If it drifts any more than 13/8 I think it's a play
van der Voort/van den Bergh - Really don't want to be touching either. If someone's slightly underrated it's probably actually Dimitri, which we've not said in months, that's just how mediocre Vincent is
Reus/Humphries - I mean we should really be putting a unit on Humphries and taking the 10%, but Reus has fucked us over once already this tournament so I'll just say no

No comments:

Post a Comment