Sunday, 10 March 2024

Wieze QF bets

Pietreczko/Clayton - Appears extremely tight. Have it closer than 51/49, Clayton being favoured but only by a fraction. As such, the line being slanted with Ricardo at 13/10 offers a sliver of value, but with Clayton looking so good in the last sixteen, one leg excepted, it's hard to think we have the edge right now, not that Ricardo played badly in knocking out Joyce at all.

Littler/Wattimena - This is looking like a great chance for Littler to make a breakthrough at this level, he was fantastic against Heta, apart from in the legs where he lost where the scoring was a bit weak, while Wattimena was fine against Cullen, took advantage of a couple of weak scoring legs from Joe, whose purple patch in the last two rounds ended rapidly. Projecting Luke up near 85%, 2/11 doesn't seem unfair, Jermaine's had a good run which'll be something to build on, but it surely ends here.

Searle/Cross - Ryan didn't put a foot wrong, just a couple of slightly slow legs where Luke was not able to finish, while Cross had probably the easiest run of anyone, dropping just the one leg with Noppert only in a position to be waiting on a double in another two. I've got Cross as a small favourite, split the difference between 55% and 45%, and the market is shading him about the same at 4/5, so I don't see any value in this one.

Price/Bunting - Gerwyn looked fantastic against Ando, who was playing exceptionally well himself, with just the one leg between them going beyond fifteen darts and the two combining to over a ton in the legs they lost. Great stuff. Bunting had three extremely strong legs, but otherwise just did his job and will need to be a bit more consistent in this one. The market can barely separate them, if you've got money on VC then take the Price line there and arb elsewhere, but I'll just take the price full stop, 0.25u Price evs, I've got him closer to 60% than 55% so that's enough edge for me to fire on the back of a fantastic last sixteen display.

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