Friday 1 March 2024

Round 4 bets

Bookies are being unbelievably slow to post lines, so I'm just going to blast through as quickly as I can and may well miss some best prices:

Searle/Usher - Flier on Usher is certainly tempting, but Searle's in such good form that I think the projection in the previous post is very misleading
Payne/Gilding - Looks generally right with Andrew being priced a bit shorter than 1/2. Great to see this on the main stage
Doets/Klose - 0.1u Klose 19/10 Ladbrokes, we like Kevin's game but Daniel we don't think is a significant dog, near 2/1 is a huge price
van Gerwen/Suljovic - MvG being huge odds on is fine, not fancying Suljovic to be able to sustain a challenge
R Smith/Gurney - Line appears just about perfect
Mitchell/Aspinall - Nathan appears acca safe, but there's not the edge to go with a single bet
Meikle/Claydon - Meikle may be too long, but we're only talking a couple of percent and his form has not been great
Reus/de Sousa - 0.5u de Sousa 1/3 365, Reus just isn't in the same league and while the projection may be a bit optimistic, it's very hard to see the Dane getting even one in five or six, let alone more than one in four
Dobey/Mansell - Mickey may be undervalued, but again this is incredibly fractional and not worth chasing
Noppert/Clemens - Noppert is only marginally better and the market correctly identifies this
Lauby/Bunting - The Bunting hype is real and his quality is sadly known now, the prices of 1/6 or there abouts have correctly caught up to his skill level
Williams/Evans - Thought Ricky might have been odds against in this one with Scott's worlds run, he is, but it's only 21/20 as opposed to a bit more where we'd have played with it
Huybrechts/Barry - Tight on paper, tight in the market. Wouldn't have put Keane as the tiny favourite but both are so close to 50/50 there's no edge
M Smith/Cullen - Smith's pedestrian 2023 seems to have caught up in the market. Joe being available at 7/4 isn't bad but the edge is too small to be confident with
Rodriguez/Cross - 0.25u Cross 1/5 Betfair, Rob looked really good yesterday, Rowby definitely doesn't look back yet, we don't have a great edge so only a quarter unit
Whitlock/Heta - Lol these two drawing each other, Heta should perhaps be a little shorter but not by much
Menzies/Anderson - Line seems OK. They've not gone mad with Ando's form, and are recognising Menzies is competent, 2/7 or there abouts seems reasonable
van Barneveld/Woodhouse - Thought Woodhouse might be a bit more undervalued based on just name recognition, but he isn't, 13/10 isn't a losing play but the value is really limited
Price/Schindler - Price being priced (urgh) to win three times out of form looks just about spot on
Clayton/Wolters - Tim's not played badly today, thought this might be priced a bit more in favour of the Ferret, 9/2 isn't really what I was looking for
Wade/Littler - Littler hype is real, if money piles in perhaps look for a small flier on Wade, who IIRC has beaten Littler already this year albeit in a shorter format, 3/1 isn't really getting me excited but if it goes beyond 7/2 then I wouldn't hate a dabble
Gates/Lukeman - 0.25u Lukeman 4/5 365, Lendog looked alright today but Martin's looked much better of late and projects a lot more than a 55% chance
Dolan/van den Bergh - Dimi is a touch overvalued, but Dolan's relative form isn't much better, Brendan would be the play but I'd have been wanting more than 6/4 before we fire
van Veen/Hempel - 4/9 on van Veen is getting close to the spot where we'd take the shot, 1/2 is very close, anything better and we go with it
de Decker/Veenstra - Seems similar to the Dolan game, Richard is not as much of a dog as the market thinks but being valued at 40% when I've got him at 45% is not quite enough
van Duijvenbode/Humphries - Think we can discard the projections given Dirk's injuries, it looks like he's better but I'd want to see something like a narrow loss in a game like this before I can write the issue off as a non-factor
Kenny/Chisnall - Chizzy's much better here. Most books have this priced correctly, Hills appear to have it at a spot where I don't hate a play on Dave
Ratajski/Gawlas - Krzysztof at 1/3 is acca safe, but he's not enough better than 75/25 to consider
Richardson/Wright - Market seems to have caught up with Peter. Thought we'd have an easy play on Joshua, but we don't
Rock/Geeraets - Another "acca safe, but no single" on the short odds player. Patrick looks alright so I wouldn't be wanting to overly push here anyway
King/Pietreczko - Form here? King projects a fair bit better than the odds we can get, I'll go with a small 0.1u King 11/5 on 365, I'm not loving it but the numbers seem to suggest we should go with it  and King's numbers were enough for me today
van der Voort/Krcmar - Would have taken the 8/13 that was showing on 365 for Krcmar, but they've adjusted to closer to what is right just now. Probably still tiny value on Boris

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