Sunday 10 March 2024

Wieze R3 bets

One out of three yesterday - given they were all around 2/1, that's going to result in close to break even regardless of which one actually one, unfortunately it was de Decker that won who was fractionally the shortest price, but we move on to the last sixteen:

Joyce/Pietreczko - Both players came through 6-5 deciders, Ricardo right at the start in an evenly matched game with Luke Woodhouse, whereas Joyce had much the better timing to nick one against Chizzy. This one seems fairly close, but Joyce has a bit of an edge for me, about the best we can get is 5/6 on Boyles, which is close to a play, but I would probably need 10/11 before I started really thinking about it given the level of play from both yesterday. Possibly evens.

Wright/Clayton - Jonny did for one of our bets yesterday, coming from a 2-0 hole to beat van Peer 6-4 with what was a good display, while Peter also won 6-4 against a somewhat underperforming van Gerwen for what has to be considered a bit of an upset at this stage. Wright surprisingly projects as a 60/40 favourite for this one, it's the same sort of scenario as the one above, we're only getting 5/6 and I'd probably want evens given how both have played yesterday (and Friday as well, in the case of Wright), and how it feels like a false prediction with the general mediocre form of Wright.

Heta/Littler - Damon had zero problems with a bit of an off Dolan, although if Brendan had have hit any double in the comedy second leg, maybe he gets it to 3-2 on throw and it might be a different story. Littler had little (lol) trouble with Ratajski, a little bit of a slow start but came through comfortably in the end. Luke looks about 70/30 here, he's 1/2 so for maybe the first time since the worlds, he's actually being underrated? It's not enough edge to bet obviously, but an interesting development.

Cullen/Wattimena - Joe came with another really good game to take Dirk out, while Jermaine continues a good run with a solid showing against Ross Smith, who clearly wasn't at his best but Jermaine didn't give him too much of a chance. This feels like a hard one to call, the projections are only giving Cullen just shy of 60%, and as the projections have typically maybe underestimated Jermaine as well, it might be right, but Joe looks to be playing a lot better than the sample this weekend, so 9/5 on Wattimena probably goes from being tiny value to being, if not -EV, certainly not safe enough to bet.

Humphries/Searle - Luke cruised past Wade with really no issues at all, just a shame he couldn't make it a 6-0, while Ryan was made to work by an opportunistic Richard Veenstra, who nicked what he could despite Searle's game being just fine. Two in form players, the projection is giving Searle ever so slightly more than a one in three shot - 12/5 is not really enough to give confidence to bet, maybe if some money comes in on Humphries, I'll go with a small play.

Cross/Noppert - Rob could easily have been 4-0 down to Lukas Wenig, but managed to escape to 3-3 and win a decider, Danny also won a decider against Dobey from 5-3 down, dodging some bullets in the tenth leg especially. Cross looks to be a solid enough favourite in this one, I'd have said about 4/7 would be a fair line, we can actually get 4/6 which is overrating Danny ever so slightly. 8/11 I'd probably say screw it and fire small.

Price/Anderson - Gerwyn was a bit up and down against Clemens but never really looked in trouble to lose the match, while Gary definitely was having some issues against an inspired Andreas Harrysson who continued his level of play from Friday and was unlucky to completely run out of steam in the decider where he had the darts. Ando is clearly the better player at this point in time and projects just shy of 60/40, the market basically has neither player odds against, with Price being the one who's hitting evens. If that was Gary I'd go with it, instead it's another one that's really close to a play but I don't quite have enough to pull the trigger.

Bunting/de Decker - Final game sees Bunting, who looked pretty decent but needed every leg to dispose of Josh Rock (kid is still playing fine, just not getting results), while Mike had a very good 6-2 win over Michael Smith, maybe the most noteworthy of his career even though the numbers were merely good if not spectacular. Bunting is about the same sort of level favourite as Gary is, but he's priced at 1/2 and not just shorter than evens. So I think it's another one where we're very close to going with Mike - 7/4 is just not quite enough, even factoring in the home field advantage, I'd want another tick or probably 2/1 flat out before I'd actually fire against Stephen on this one.

So no bets, but if you're more bullish on some players that I think are close, maybe there's some value for you.

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