Saturday 9 March 2024

Wieze round 2 bets

0.1u van Peer 15/8, as stated below he actually projects as favourite. Even if we say it's all consistency and flip him from a 55/45 favourite to a 55/45 dog as a result, that still gives us a pretty big edge and we take those, I only don't go a quarter unit as I fear I may be missing something fundamental here. Maybe Jonny having a quieter schedule makes him unexpectedly fresh or something.

0.1u Dolan 9/4, don't love this anywhere near as much as the above one, but we're still getting better than 2/1 on someone we're thinking at worst has a 40% chance. Even if that's 5% too much, it's still a +EV play.

0.1u de Decker 7/4, someone we're saying is close to a flip on home soil at approaching 2/1 odds? Sign me up.

That's the lot, the only other real consideration was Dirk, a play I don't hate, but there's enough uncertainty as to the state of his game that I'm happy enough to effectively put him off the board as of right now.

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