Saturday 30 March 2024

Munich day 1

Was meaning to get this up yesterday, but was just too tired, then kind of half forgot this was on with the scheduling being a little bit funky compared to other Euro Tour events and the calendar/days off work also throwing me. God knows what the clock change tonight will do, but let's get into it:

Joyce/Doets - Feels like this is an important one for Doets, currently being on the right side of the Matchplay spots, but not by much, getting a decent wedge to try to bridge the gap up to Rydz (there's about 5k difference between between 13th and 14th right now) would be very beneficial. Joyce is looking safer on that front, and it feels like he's playing slightly the better darts, and the numbers agree with him projecting just over 60%. 8/11 looks like a small undervaluing of Ryan, not enough to punt though.

Dolan/Soutar - Brendan however is on the other side of the Matchplay cutoff, albeit not by much at all, so getting a win over Soutar, who kind of needs a big year himself after a down 2023, would be crucial so it's an important game for both. It feels like Alan's been playing better of late, and I don't have this more than just a weighted coinflip in Brendan's favour, so I feel with a bit of momentum in Soutar's favour, we can have a small stab, 0.1u Soutar 11/8 on 365.

Roetzsch/Wattimena - Franz is a player we've been aware of for some time and he's had an alright start on the Challenge Tour this season, does feel like it's surely just a matter of time before he comes good in something and gets his card. Jermaine's been a bit resurgent of late and should be favoured, hard to tell with general lack of data on Roetzsch, maybe 4/11 is a bit harsh, but 5/2 I don't think offers sufficient value to take a flier on the German qualifier.

Menzies/de Decker - This one looks good on paper and is another one which might have Matchplay consequences with the two players currently 18th and 19th on the Pro Tour list. Seems like both are playing well, but I'm getting Cameron as approaching a 60% favourite, he is still somewhat undervalued and I think there is a sliver of value here, 0.1u Menzies 10/11 is generally available.

Dobey/Tingstrom - Viktor won the Nordic qualifier, and looked pretty decent in a couple of matches against the highly rated Harrysson and Lukasiak, and not exactly awful in his other games either. It's an enormous step up against someone like Chris, I'm not sure that 15/2 is really being fair on the Swede, but it'd be reasonable to think he might be a bit nervy in this one. Or maybe it's a free hit? Who knows.

de Zwaan/Ehlers - Jeffrey looks like he's continuing to get a little bit better, but is still someway off his best, and he's got an alright draw against a domestic qualifier who I've not heard of before, so I guess it's a debut, the quali was alright, mostly low to mid 80s with one flash up into the 90s in the semi final, I don't think it's enough to really threaten de Zwaan, his Q-School numbers look a bit better than his quali numbers, but this looks like a take on the known quantity at the price, 0.25u de Zwaan 2/5 on Hills

Mueller/Veenstra - Oliver's another one to have come through the quali, and if anything the numbers look less convincing than Matthias's do, and Veenstra feels like a tougher draw than de Zwaan is. The market's giving Richard a bit of a better chance accordingly, so I'm looking at the same sort of thing again, 0.25u Veenstra 3/10 on 365 looks good.

Zonneveld/Woodhouse - This ought to be competitive but with Luke being a late call up for Gary Anderson, maybe he's not quite 100% in terms of preparation, he's perhaps a little better than the odds suggest (is 10/11, I've got it better but closer to 55% than 60%), so I'm not going to take the shot as I did in a similar situation with Menzies just because even a fraction of underperformance due to potential less than ideal preparation is enough not to punt.

Wenig/Lennon - This ought to be fun to start with a home country card holder against a known good player, I've actually got these two running pretty close and Lukas has had some steady results. I'm reluctant to bet against Steve, but it is home field advantage, I'll go with 0.1u Wenig 6/4 on 365, with it being in Germany and the numbers being just about at close as they are, I can push out to recommend a small play.

Wade/Gurney - Not a bad second game either, both been around for more than a decade now, Gurney is actually projecting as a favourite which did surprise me, and you can't actually get better than 4/5, which also surprised me. While Daryl does project as better in my numbers, it's not enough to be worth a play, he's perhaps 2-3% stronger than the line suggests which really isn't enough given it's not unreasonable to think projections will underestimate Wade.

Gilding/Cullen - This is already shaping up to be a great session, both have just been quietly getting their job done, and Joe did us with a couple of real good performances in ET1. Gilding is projecting better - it's a little bit down to consistency, but there's not a great disparity, and he is not a favourite in the market. 0.25u Gilding 11/8 on VC, anything down to about 6/5 is probably worth the play, below that I'd go down to evens on a tenth of a unit.

Schindler/Sedlak - Martin's got one of the qualifiers here, it's a name we've seen before, but not a huge amount recently, he's got some game so I'm not going to say take Schindler 2/7 and print money, but Martin looks clearly better and should be comfortable enough to get the win.

van Barneveld/van Veen - Clash of eras here in a local derby, and the line looks pretty much close to correct - Gian projects a little bit better than the 4/5 line suggests, but we can clearly temper that with the knowledge that Barney is playing really well in the relative short term. Easy enough one to just avoid for betting and enjoy.

Wright/de Sousa - Session isn't exactly getting worse, is it? Peter's showing a little bit more of late, while Jose is still fairly anonymous, not really doing anything to make us think he'll get into the tough majors this year or arrest a slide that looks like well out of the top 32 this time next year. That said, the projections make this a tough one to call, so while my first instinct would be continue to lay Wright until proven bad, Jose is actually only 6/5 and that is a hard pass at the price.

van den Bergh/Clemens - And we finish with another banger, Dimitri's got the big win recently, while Gabriel is remarkably still looking for a first title. Seems legitimately too close to call, the market has neither odds against and is just shading Dimi as the favourite, I'd probably have it the other way but it is neither here nor there and we're not interested in either until we start getting up towards 11/8, which we're not going to see.

Round 2 may also be fairly late.

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