Sunday 31 March 2024

Day 2 bets

Let's rattle through these quickly having already done the projections last night:

Smith/Dolan - Seems close enough to a correct line, it's got Ross a little bit shorter than the projection suggests but it did feel at the time like it might be overestimating Brendan a little anyway so I'm fine with a no bet.

Rock/Veenstra - Line appears pretty close to perfect, both are probably a bit underrated in general so that kind of cancels each other out.

Ratajski/Dobey - Almost feels like we're close to a stab on Ratajski. Krzysztof is still playing solid darts. If we had the inverse of Chris's odds, i.e. we could get 2/1, I'd probably take a small stab but we've got a fair bit of vig in the market so nothing doing here. Yet.

Joyce/Pietreczko - Market can't separate the two but we think Ryan is solidly better. A little bit of consistency at play and home field won't help (although it is the afternoon session), but VC are offering a good price which we'll take, 0.25u Joyce evs

Bunting/Wattimena - Projection really, really loves Bunting, and with good reason, but I think in reality it's probably a tad closer than what I've put up, Jermaine did get a 6-0 over a competent opponent yesterday, albeit with a not great performance, line's close enough for me.

Searle/Lennon - Market's throwing this around 70/30, I've got it marginally tighter than that, Steve's undervalued, but it's not enough to bet on Lennon, Searle isn't exactly playing badly in 2024 and Lennon wasn't overly convincing yesterday.

Cross/Gurney - Market has this one round about spot on. Think it's one where both are a tad undervalued, Gurney yesterday was pretty much par for the course.

van Duijvenbode/Aspinall - I think with Dirk having had a decent Pro Tour run we can stop taking him off the board for injury reasons now, but we're certainly not going to jump in either way when both the projections and the market have Nathan as a small favourite.

Smith/Menzies - Both players are scoring exactly the same in my database since the start of September. Exactly. To two decimal places. Menzies is doing better on winning legs hence why he projects as a favourite, but this one's going to be very close so we take the VC line again, 0.25u Menzies 6/4

Noppert/van Veen - Market can barely separate them, it gives Noppert the tiny edge with van Veen at evens, I think this is very close to a punt but Danny's a touch more consistent and van Veen was merely good, not spectacular yesterday. Wouldn't hate a tenth of a unit at evens but I'll wait and see if we can get 11/10 which would be a go.

Price/Wright - 1/2 on Gerwyn appears really, really close, but Peter has looked good over the last week or so, as such I'm fine with holding fire on this one.

Humphries/Woodhouse - Line's fine, the lesser Luke's good but the world champ is in a really good place right now and being priced at 2/9 is not completely ridiculous.

Heta/Schindler - I'm calling this one as being real close, Heta is scoring more but Martin's scoring better on the winning legs, which is why I projected him as favourite. Coralbrokes are offering a good price which I'll have a small nibble at, 0.1u Schindler 11/8, if Damon does have an edge it is not as big as that line suggests.

van Gerwen/de Zwaan - Jeffrey was both a bit fortunate and unfortunate yesterday, he got away with the game but ran into back to back ton plus checkouts from a great position. Still, nothing to suggest that the market isn't close to perfect.

Chisnall/van den Bergh - Dave as a small favourite seems just about right. Dimitri was excellent yesterday and Chizzy at 10/11 and Dimi the inverse is as close to perfect as I think you'll get.

Clayton/Cullen - Similar thing here, I'm showing Joe as a small favourite, the market is doing the same 11/10 and 10/11 thing, we're not touching it.

So three bets here. Let's go.

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