Friday 8 March 2024

Wieze R2 thoughts

Not going to lie for one minute, that was not a good day in terms of results. Think the process was fine - when you get an unrelated account agree with your main play, it does give a bit of confidence that you're coming to the right conclusions, but it's not always going to work. Schindler wasn't at his best, but Cullen played really well and we've got to give credit where it's due to Joe, it's probably at least a one and a half sigma negative in terms of outcomes, but these things happen. Wright played pretty ordinary as we thought, de Vos just didn't have it either, while Barney was in the position to win, and just fucked it up. These things happen. We just keep putting the volume of bets in where we think we're right, and in the long run we'll be fine.

So, onto round two - first round's only just recently done, so while some lines will be out, I'm going to blast out a quick bets post in the morning (and I mean quick, just pointing out plays and that's it, I've got a moderately long trip to a game tomorrow, so if I just mention a game you can assume that I'm thinking line is close enough to thoughts) and then be done with it, and then catch up on everything on Sunday morning.

Pietreczko/Woodhouse - Competitive enough one to start. Luke was alright in round one, nothing spectacular one way or another, and is actually projecting about 55/45 ahead, so could be a chance of a seed going out here.

Smith/Wattimena - Didn't have Jermaine whitewashing anyone at this level in the thoughts, but he did, but this is a bit of a step up and Ross is projecting more than 75/25. There is no consistency thing here, that's just how good he's playing.

Clayton/van Peer - Was able to get a little bit of respite on van Peer getting through Klose with a personal side play, but I don't think he did too much notable, just got the job done, but here's the bonkers thing - van Peer is projecting as a favourite. Not by a lot, 55/45 at most, and if you take into account Berry's wild inconsistency, he might not be a favourite at all, but if he's a dog, it's not by much, so this could be a favourable play on van Peer here.

Heta/Dolan - The guy Brendan played actually did a bit more than we thought, but Dolan still came through, and it's another one that looks weirdly close in the projections, again around a 55/45 clip. Heta does have a consistency edge, but it's not by much, and we may be looking at the history maker for an underdog flier potentially.

Searle/Veenstra - Richard did well to pull away after holding on by nicking the scrappy legs in the early stages, and gets another tough opponent in Searle here, this is again showing up as a 2-1 sort of game which seems fair enough, especially given Ryan's current good form.

Noppert/Dobey - Chris came through as expected, the other guy did kind of what we thought and it'll be good to see him a bit more going forward (maybe in the World Cup?), but for now this should be a competitve game but one where Dobey is coming in as the better player, dropping right in the middle of the 60%-65% range and it looks one where Danny's solidity can't handle what looks to be a clearly superior player on paper.

Anderson/Harrysson - Andreas probably had the game of his life to storm past van Veen, and I'm thinking this is one where we get a bit of a hangover and where the (unfiltered on the sample size I'm using) second best player in the world just turns over the best player in the world and moves on.

van Duijvenbode/Cullen - As mentioned above, Joe looked extremely good in his first game, Dirk I think is still a bit of a mystery but is projecting nicely into the low 60% range. Huge questions with consistency and with injury, he looks to be getting back to where he was, but this one is going to be look at the line and go with feel as opposed to data given there are a lot of intangibles saying go with Cullen.

Chisnall/Joyce - Ryan just got the job done, nothing special there, but has been doing enough in recent months where Dave is nowhere near 60%, he's actually closer to 55% than that. He had a great 2023 but maybe much of it was in the early stages and tides are changing?

Smith/de Decker - Mike was made to work earlier, but seemingly had a big home crowd with him which you have to expect will continue here, and on the relevant numbers I'm not finding a lot to split the two. Smith is better but it's very marginal, so look for a bet on the home favourite here.

Price/Clemens - Gabriel moved through with little problems, now we get one of the biggest upshifts in terms of quality of opponent you will see on this circuit, but Clemens is certainly not without chances. Price has lost to a comparable German player over a longer format pretty recently, and Clemens has a touch more than a one in three shot - the Iceman should come through, but this is not a formality.

van Gerwen/Wright - One that looks better on paper than it probably will be in real life. Wright's actually projecting at a moderately reasonable number a touch over 35%, but there's big inconsistency numbers in play here that we really need to consider in this one.

Ratajski/Littler - Can't think I'll be the only one that was surprised that de Sousa forced Littler to a deciding leg. Krzysztof is not going to care about the hype and will just step up and do his thing, which on the numbers should get there a tad less than one in three but a tad more than 30% of the time. Will watch the bookies, but this might be a play, although little was offered in the JdS game.

Humphries/Wade - Probably one of the bigger projections we've seen in that it's showing near to 80/20 in favour of the world champion. Is that unfair on someone of Wade's calibre? Frankly no, it's not.

Rock/Bunting - Stephen was getting quite a lot of steam in the markets, to the point where the flier price I wanted on Dimi on the exchanges was actually met. Still, he came through, just about, and is showing enough where he's the tiniest favourite over Josh in this one. Rock almost feels a bit like a forgotten man, but he is more than keeping pace with one of the more hyped up names of the present.

Cross/Wenig - One of the less interesting games, Lukas got through a qualifier but was a touch sluggish, he is projecting at about a one in five chance but context of form makes me think we're not going to hit near that likelihood and we won't have a chance for a flier play on Wenig.

Check in tomorrow for any bets, if they're not up by quarter to ten or so, then assume nothing of value is there.

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