Friday 8 March 2024

Wieze R1 bets

van Peer/Klose - Looks close enough to right. May be undervaluing Berry extremely fractionally, like maybe 1% or 2%, which isn't enough to bet.

Joyce/Gilding - Again, looks pretty close to correct, Gilding's 6/5 and we were saying he had a 45% chance.

Wenig/van Put - We're clearly not going to touch Lukas at shorter than 1/8, question is whether we have enough confidence in what Born can do to fire, and I think that's a categorical no.

Gurney/Wattimena - First one we can really think about firing on, with Daryl at 4/7 which is implying just under a 65% chance, when we're thinking it's probably around 70%. That said, we did think that was a bit of a possible false projection, and on further inspection Jermaine's a couple of points better on consistency so I'm happy enough to reign in Gurney's chances enough to make it a no bet.

Woodhouse/Hurrell - Luke's coming in at just shorter than 1/2, which is pretty much exactly where I thought it would be.

Dolan/Strobbe - Would need a lot, lot longer than 9/1 to consider Strobbe here. Dolan at 1/14 probably isn't terrible to be honest.

Dobey/Grbavac - I'm kind of half tempted to consider Romeo to be honest here, given he's actually longer in places than Strobbe is, which seems a bit silly to be honest. It is a bit step up in class against a very good opponent though, so I won't actually bet it.

Harrysson/van Veen - Lacking real data on Andreas here, but Gian at 1/5 seems like the right sort of ballpark figure.

de Decker/Landman - Thought Chris might be a bit shorter, but you can actually get 3/1 on 888 which does offer a small arb. I'd actually need longer to bet him though, so we're clearly not going to play him, or Mike, whose best odds look just about right and whose worst odds are clearly unplayable.

Schindler/Cullen - Market can't split the two, which seems bonkers. Unlike the Gurney game, we are going to play though, 0.25u Schindler 10/11, for two reasons - Martin's coming off a huge win, and we're getting a massively better price. Cullen is a lot more consistent but that consistency isn't going to make near evens not the correct play, since the summer Martin's two points a turn better which is a lot.

Caron/Clemens - Jeroen's a lot closer than the other two qualifiers we've looked at so far, which I think is probably just about fair enough given what little amount we know of him. As such I'm happy not to play it, he's got a puncher's chance but that's about it and Gabriel should be, and is, a strong favourite.

Littler/de Sousa - Might be tiny value in Jose at 4/1, which would fit in with current lay Littler early and often theory, the concern is he's coming off of what ought to be a really confidence damaging loss. As such, I'm not going to play the lay Littler card on this one.

Wright/de Vos - 0.1u 11/2 de Vos, we don't have recent data on Geert outside of the quali, but this is just a general principle "nobody competent should be longer than 5/1 against Wright in a first to six" bet right now, and de Vos at least qualifies as competent. For comparison, Jurjen van der Velde shows at over a 20% chance.

Wade/van Barneveld - Wade's actually the market favourite here, albeit only just. There is, as you might expect, a consistency issue with the numbers, Wade is as you might expect a fair bit more consistent, but if we reign Barney's advantage on the winning legs all the way in from just below 60% to just above 50%, there is still enough of an edge for a small stab. 0.1u van Barneveld 6/5

van den Bergh/Bunting - Stephen is, quite correctly, projecting as favourite, but while I'd have it at 4/6, it's actually 8/13. So that's underrating Dimitri a tiny amount already looking at the raw numbers, without factoring in intangibles such as "just won a major title this week" and "playing on home soil penultimate game of the evening session". Depends on how much you think that bumps Dimi's numbers - if you think it'll give him an additional 2-3%, then go with the shot.

Aspinall/Veenstra - Looks about right to me. Wouldn't be touching Nathan, maybe Veenstra is no worse than a neutral EV play, 2/1 looks a perfect line so if you factor in the travel then perhaps you can justify it clearly not being a losing play.

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