Thursday 25 November 2021

PC Finals tips - section four

Let's get this done

Clayton/Tabern - What Jonny's done this season is phenomenal, lifting himself into the top 5 players in the world by whatever metric you want to use. As such, he's rightly a prohibitive favourite against Tabern, who's one of the last players in the field with less than a 20% chance of winning this one. 2/11 Clayton seems fine, actually a tiny arb as a lot of bookies have him much shorter.

Mitchell/Kleermaker - Scott's done well to get into the top half of the seeds for this, multiple early quarter finals being a pretty nice haul for the veteran, who comes up against Kleermaker, who did make it all the way to a final earlier in the season which helped him to make the Grand Prix. Market looks good to me, Scott's a tiny favourite whichever way you look at it, might actually be a touch underrated with Martijn having some consistency issues.

Smith/Rodriguez - Ross against Rusty to avoid any doubt, Smudger's managed a first bink this season as well as another final to end in the top 16 seeds for the season. Rusty's one of a few players who have come from the Q-School top up spots to really make a mark, and will be a dangerous opponent. Market has Ross as a surprisingly short favourite at 1/3, while I think Rusty has 35% so we'll take a stab, 0.25u Rodriguez 13/5, he even has the consistency advantage.

Humprhies/Heaver - Luke's continued to grow his game, making a major final, still waiting for a first bink though. Jason's had a very solid first season on the PDC tour without really making any headlines, one semi final as well as multiple board wins getting him here which I think he'll be happy with. Luke's going to be the big favourite here and the market's not giving Jason more than a 25% shot, maybe that's slightly harsh but we're not going to bet against Humphries here. Sub-89 scoring isn't going to cut it often enough for my liking.

Cullen/Boulton - Joe continues to play well, getting slightly deeper into big comps, getting a bink, but yet to make that huge breakthrough that's going to push him much higher than the lower reaches of the top 16. Andy has not had a bad season at all and is playing well enough that he should take this a little bit more than one in three, but has just been a bit unfortunate with results outside of one semi and he is currently not in the worlds - but should be among the favourites for the PDPA qualifier. Market is overrating Cullen enough that we can punt, 0.25u Boulton 12/5, 37% when he only needs to win 30% to break even looks alright to me.

van der Voort/Klaasen - Fuck the rules that's taken Hughes out of this one. Still, it's a backdoor out for Jelle who needs some sort of result over the next week to have a chance of saving his card, and a win here against Vincent would help. VVDV has one semi this season but is more a consistent board winner, accumulating more than anything. Jelle's actually quite close in the projections, it's 55/45 to Vincent, who's 4/6 in the market, so not really enough value to punt on Klaasen.

van den Bergh/Razma - Dimitri will be looking to get some results here after having been screwed out of the Grand Slam, which won't cost him worlds seeding but it's a chance to bink another major and as someone playing at a level who can do that, it's got to sting. Madars has been alright, but not at Dimitri's level and it's really not close. 80/20 Dimitri for me, bookies have it slightly closer but not quite enough to start betting on the Belgian.

Noppert/Rodriguez - Final game gives us Danny, who had a big Grand Prix run which has lost much of the value that he offered in our Circle of Betting Trust, and Rowby, who like his brother has been taking great advantage of backup chances given and really making an impression on the tour. Danny should be comfortable here, and should win this more than 60% - market thinks a bit more than that, but not enough disparity to go on Rowby really.

So that's the lot, another two bets to add, good luck everyone.

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