Wednesday 24 November 2021

PC Finals tips - section one

Let's rattle through as many of these as we can:

de Sousa/Petersen - Actually somewhat surprised that Devon actually got enough money to creep into the event, I think he got a moderately deep run early on and then just kept things ticking over. Also a bit surprised that de Sousa did enough to end up as the number one seed. Doesn't matter though, Jose's a big favourite naturally, but only just over 75%. As such, 10/3 on Devon is pretty close to accurate.

King/Labanauskas - Mervyn's been solid all year, Darius meanwhile has had a couple of alright runs, been a bit quiet from him but he was always fairly close to major qualification and actually did enough to make the Grand Prix. Would fancy Mervyn on eye test, and he's just a bit better than 60/40 on the model. Market favours King ever so slightly more, not enough to consider tipping Darius though.

Dobey/O'Connor - Chris is pretty high up having managed to bink events and is hitting form just at the right time, although he didn't really show it having got bailed in terms of making the Grand Slam. Willie's not really been on the radar this season, but has done enough to get here, a late semi final being a bit of a difference maker. Dobey should be a prohibitive favourite here and win three in four, the market doesn't agree and I think there's enough for a small shot, 0.25u Dobey 1/2. Not going much more as I think the model might be somewhat overrating Chris, but still worth the shot.

Ratajski/Meulenkamp - Ratajski won the last event, which pushes him nicely up the rankings right when it matters, while Ron did most of his work early on in the season with a few board wins, just about sneaking into the field. Seems an easy Krzysztof prediction, the market does seem to be overrating him a touch, I'd have gone 2/5 and he's actually 3/10, so you could maybe think about a small Ron shot if you really want to push small edges.

Price/Lowe - Yeah, Gerwyn's looking really good as we get to the business end of the season and won the Grand Slam yet again. Jason has been a touch quiet after a nice first season, only just doing enough to make the worlds on account of Jeff Smith binking one of the CDC qualifying spots, couple of back to back quarter finals being the difference maker in the first half of the year. Lowe's not drawing completely dead, having a touch over 20% chance, but with so long since results I don't want to look at the 5/1 we can get with any real seriousness.

Schindler/White - Martin's had a fantastic campaign and would have been right up there in the Pro Tour qualifying spots for the worlds if he hadn't already binked the superleague. Ian's dropped somewhat mainly due to lack of European Tours to replace the great 2019 he had, he's not dropped off a cliff in terms of quality, but the rankings don't lie. As such, the market thinks Martin a bit more than 55/45 - and despite his form, the bookies have him at evens. Worth thinking about a Schindler bet if it drifts at all.

Dolan/Barstow - Brendan maintains an under the radar presence, going along with a real good 93/turn scoring which is top 16 standard. Chas didn't get a card, but was not far off at all and made the most of all the Pro Tour call ups he got with more than one quarter. Chas looks a bit outmatched here with just below a one in three chance to win this one, and he's 5/2 in the market so that looks about right to me.

Chisnall/Edhouse - Dave's not had a whole amount of landmark results in 2021 with just a couple of semis on the tour to his name, he's playing a clear top 32 standard but not quite matching his rankings. Edhouse has had an alright season, sneaking into the European Championship and winning a fair few boards to get up the charts. Dave ought to take this seven out of ten from where I see it, which is close to where the market is, they favour Chizzy ever so slightly more, but we can't bet this one.

Probably do the second quarter later tonight.

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