Tuesday 16 November 2021

Slam last 16

Urgh, that was annoying. Pretty much everyone I wanted to get through didn't get through. Takes a lot of the interest out of it. Was looking fairly bad on the betting front as well before Rowby allowed us to get out of the last set of group games relatively unscathed, still down just over half a unit but we're getting into longer games now so let's see what's going on.

Joyce/Cross - Market looks fine. Ryan's done a great job to get this far, but it's hard to go against the former world champ on current form. 9/4 seems pretty much spot on value wise looking season long, I'm thinking 32% Joyce? Leave this one alone.

Wade/Rodriguez - Another one where the group C player comes in as the favourite, not quite as much as Rob is, but still the favourite, so maybe we get a rematch of what was a pretty good last group game? I kind of think this is pretty close to a bet on Rowby, we can get 9/5 which translates to needing 36% to break even, the projection shows about 43% so it's close, but Rowby has about double the inconsistency score that James has. This seems like the worst sort of matchup, so I'm not going to try to push a close call into a bet here.

Price/Brooks, Clayton/Rafferty - Going to deal with both of these in the same comment as they're fairly similar. 1/9 doesn't look too much wrong. Bradley probably has the slightly better shot, but neither actually rates to be worth any sort of underdog yolo punt. It's a shame neither of the kids managed to nick the group, as they'd then have played each other and the probable Price/Clayton quarter would be brought forward.

Suljovic/Sherrock - Jesus christ why on earth did she get that 170. Credit where due but I'm a big Clemens fan and that was real tough to see. Still, we get the worlds rematch, it's basically saying around 70/30 Suljovic, I still don't have enough data on Fallon to say anything of note on that front (averaging 85 on the Challenge Tour and losing more in entry fees than she won in prize money will do that), but it seems fair enough.

Smith/Cullen - Should be an interesting one. Two players in a kind of similar spot in most rankings, market can't separate them. I think Smith's got the smallest of edges, it's not quite 55/45, so with him being slightly odds on compared to Joe's straight evens, I can pass.

van Gerwen/Anderson - I'm no huge fan of Gary or Barney, at least now, Barney back in the day was a different story, but being denied an MvG/RvB match is an irritant. Seems to be fairly close to value on Michael here, I can see 78% chances, and we can get better than 1/3. It's really not enough, but I wouldn't hate just sticking the two Welsh lads and Michael into an acca as bankers if you just want to punt on something else to build the base price of your bets.

Wright/de Sousa - For me this is the match of the round with two top five players clashing - I'd have preferred Humphries to get out but we can't have nice things. Market is favouring Peter ever so slightly, another 55/45 kind of deal, model thinks it might actually be the other way around, but it does love Jose and doesn't take into account a bit better consistency from Wright. No bet.

Nothing here really.

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