Friday 12 November 2021

Slam day 1 bets

Going to be incredibly brief here unfortunately as there's so many games.

Bunting/Joyce - Seems right. Bunting favourite, Joyce is live, meh.

Ratajski/Schindler - Possibly the best game of the day is second on? Fuck this tournament. Fairly close to a Schindler bet but the market's caught up enough.

King/Brooks - Probably actually close to a value bet on King. Seems close to 80% and we get better than 1/3.

Wade/Williams - Sample size is a bit short on Jim, so got to be careful here, but what sample we do have puts it at around 60/40 and he's 13/8, which isn't tempting.

Cross/Krcmar - Very close to a bet on Boris. Not quite the edge over a year long sample and Cross is doing better work of late so happy to avoid.

Clayton/Rusty - Meh, this is kind of close to value on Rusty. It's short enough that I see him as better than one in four, we can get 7/2. Don't hate the bet, but no.

Price/Rafferty - Probably acca safe. Nathan's not shown enough to make me think he can threaten, but while taking Price at 1/7 is probably technically correct, I'll pass on it as short race, weird things can happen.

Dobey/Rowby - Projections have this pretty much bang on 2-1 in favour of Chris. Shame that the market is aligned in the same way, I thought there might have been value.

Clemens/de Decker - Seems deceptively close. Market is underrating Mike a touch, not quite enough to punt though. Wouldn't hate a quick handicap punt on Mike, particularly if you see he has won the darts.

de Sousa/Campbell - Matt isn't hugely lacking in sample size given how much he pwned the Challenge Tour, so I think we can say that the market isn't actually being unkind to him. Jose is just that much better, and if we were going to take a shot it would be on the Portuguese ace.

Humphries/Suljovic - Appears too close to call, albeit Luke appears to have the slight edge. Market agrees. Might actually be shaded too far in Luke's favour ever so slightly with Mensur on a bit of an upswing. Nothing here though.

Anderson/Davis - Think Joe should be off the board until we've seen him play. 1/4 Ando seems awfully tempting though.

van Gerwen/Ashton - Can Lisa hit some hot form enough to take down MvG? Yes. Can she do it often enough that we can take 13/2? Nope, although it looks about right.

Cullen/Henderson - Hendo might have slightly more chance to take down Joe than the market suggests. We can get 5/2, I'm thinking it should be nearer 7/4, 15/8 territory. I wouldn't hate the punt but there isn't quite the edge.

Wright/Sherrock - I have no data on Fallon. No idea if she played the Challenge Tour off the top of my head, but if she did, she did nowt in it. 7/2 looks about right.

Smith/van Barneveld - Should be a close game. It's nearly a bet on Barney. 13/8 with 46% win chances isn't a bad punt, last on on the day with a pissed up crowd likely in his favour, if you want to go with it I wouldn't hate it.

Day 1 of this is always a bit of a minefield, as such that I've talked myself out of everything may not be the worst idea. It isn't as if I've talked myself out of anything concrete for spurious objective reasons. Maybe I should go Barney, I don't know. I'm happy enough to see how things go and then re-evaluate on Sunday morning. Good luck ladies and gents.

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