Monday 15 November 2021

Slam days 3-4

Bit of a disappointing day 2 with all the bets whiffing, Schindler's really disappointed this tournament, Rusty wasn't bad (idiotic bull route on 66 when he was broken in leg 2 aside), Dobey had the one terrible leg 7 which was very costly, then Rowby wasn't exactly bad, just got outplayed by Joyce. Things happen.

A few people have booked their place in the last 16, any game where we've got a qualifier against someone already out we're taking off the board and not considering. It becomes a friendly for all intents and purposes. So what do we have left?

Dobey/Joyce - Off the board.

Price/Schindler - Off the board.

Krcmar/Williams - We can consider this one, although Krcmar is basically needing two 5-0 results to qualify. Hard to think he's going to be that motivated as a result. On straight paper the model favours Jim ever so slightly, and he's 8/11, so we're not going to touch this one as a result.

Wade/Cross - Hmm. Cross only needs 2-3 legs to secure the group win. Wade may not need anything when this goes live as a Boris win will qualify Wade unless he gets absolutely murdered. Model says this is flippy, market is favouring Cross a bit too much but just because of the group dynamics I'm ignoring it.

Brooks/Rusty - Rusty is favoured 70/30 in the model, but Bradley's played extremely well in this group so far. As such, Rusty is actually the dog in the market. Rusty needs at least a 5-2 win and then help from Clayton to advance, would an early Bradley leg put too much pressure on? I think we've got to take a small 0.1u Rodriguez 11/10, but this could end up being a weird one.

Clayton/King - It could be the case that if Brooks wins, then King will need at least a 5-1 win. Or, if Rusty wins, then King just needs to get home. King isn't quite value on the market - he's done enough this year that he shouldn't be longer than 2/1 here, but this could again be odd.

Ratajski/Rafferty - Straight winner takes all here. 0.25u Ratajski 3/10, moderately small here despite the model favouring Ratajski hugely, given that Nathan hasn't been too bad.

Bunting/Rowby - Another winner takes all. Bunting is coming in as the near 2-1 favourite. Rowby seems better than that, 0.25u Rodriguez 7/4, the model says it's a flip. Bunting's probably playing a little bit better than year long this weekend, but Rowby has looked good as well. Taking him with confidence here.

Clemens/Sherrock - On to Tuesday now. Gabriel is on four and Sherrock is on two, so while Gabriel will take the group with a win, he only actually needs to get to a decider. I think we can avoid this, Fallon's rated as winning one in three, which seems fine, she did look pretty good against de Decker.

Anderson/van Barneveld - Yet more straight showdowns, and Barney comes in as a slight dog. I'm not really sure why, season long stats give it to Barney 55/45. What exactly has Gary done this year after the worlds? 6/5 is very close to a value punt. If I see Gary has lost the bull and I can still get it, I'll jump in.

Cullen/Ashton - Lisa needs a 5-0 here or she's out. 9/2 is perhaps underrating her slightly, although maybe she's underperforming a touch in the first two games. It's not underrating enough to warrant a bet, maybe Joe will also relax if he just takes the first leg and knows that, barring Hendo being a fuckin legend, he's through.

de Sousa/Humphries - Four point versus two point game here, Jose's needing three legs to guarantee the tiebreaker over Luke, who really needs to win and likely do so heavily enough to get ahead of de Sousa. The market looks close enough to correct, I'm seeing 63%, he's 4/6, next please.

Suljovic/Campbell - Mensur can get through with a 5-3 win, so he can't take this too easily. He's looked good, Matt's looked OK but not really doing enough that I think he'll truly threaten Suljovic. The odds for Suljovic look within fractions of a percent of being perfect anyway, so we'll move on again.

Smith/Davis - Off the board. 1/33 anyway lol.

van Gerwen/Henderson - Michael's been looking spectacular. Hendo hasn't. We can get better than 1/5 on Michael, that's more or less where I do see this game. He only needs one leg, so I think this is a case of getting it then playing with complete freedom.

Wright/de Decker - It's not a complete dead rubber despite de Decker being out already - he's only out on leg difference. Wright just needs a win of any description, and it's hard to see that he doesn't do this given that Mike's really not looked great in the first two games. Season long Wright is too short, but maybe de Decker just folds too easily given the situation. He can't even get third unless we see a 5-0 and then the same in the Clemens/Sherrock game.

Hopefully these go a bit better, although if they don't, maybe we dial back our expectations of the Rodriguez brothers as we approach the business end of the season. As an aside, Paul Lim is back! Legend.

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