Thursday 25 November 2021

PC Finals tips - section three

Bit late, but in time to punt

Wright/Barry - Good opportunity for Keane here to make a statement, who's done well in a first full season on tour but lacks the real scoring power to make an impact at the top level right now, which means it's a bit unfortunate that he faces Wright here who's looking decent enough. Barry probably has close to a one in four shot, which unfortunately for us punters is right where the line is set.

Lewis/Huybrechts - Adie continues to slide down the rankings but is doing enough to scrape into the top 32 of the seeds, primarily from one final and not much else. Kim's had kind of the same run in the past (albeit without the extreme heights of Lewis), and is upticking trying to make his own way back to the top 32. Market has it as a flip which looks spot on, the model gives it not even 51/49 in favour of Lewis and less than two tenths of a point separate them in season long scoring. No bet.

Heta/Lennon - Damon has backed up a first good season with another solid one, easily in the top sixteen for scoring and getting a couple of finals under his belt, albeit not quite getting over the line in them. Steve hasn't played too badly, scoring nearer to 91 than 90 for the year, but has come up awfully dry in terms of results after an early four event run of board wins. Market thinks Heta takes two in three, which I think it being a little bit unkind on Lennon, he doesn't have the win percentage to consider a bet at 2/1 (he's south of 40% which is roughly where I'd start looking), but Damon isn't as much of a sure shot as the market indicates.

Clemens/Beaton - Gabriel is still on the lookout for a first tour win, he's made another final and reached a couple of semis but is still waiting, maybe the best on the tour without a title (although I will entertain arguments that he's not even the best German without a title right now). Steve continues to do enough to get into the worlds, although you wonder for how much longer, he's barely scoring 89, is easily gone from the FRH top 50 and is more miss than hit in the second half of the season. Gabriel is a big favourite here at around the 70/30 mark, which I think is a bit too much really. Steve won't give up too much and is rated to win over 40%, and has the better consistency. I think we can take a stab here, 0.25u Beaton 12/5

van Gerwen/Doets - Michael has the highest scoring in the world by nearly half a point, Price is then nearly a full point (0.99 lol) ahead of anyone else. He's not won much at all, but he is still that good. So it's quite some story for Kevin to have done what he's done this season and get the chance to play here, although he's just got screwed in terms of the worlds as more or less last man out right now. 1/5 would probably be right here, van Gerwen's actually 1/7 but with the vig we can't possibly consider tipping Kevin to cause a monumental upset.

van Barneveld/Kuivenhoven - The draw is such that we're guaranteed one Dutchman in the last sixteen, and the possibility of an MvG/RvB second round, which'd be mouthwatering. Raymond obviously binked early in the season, but I don't recall seeing any mention of him at all since then outside of last week's Slam, where he was OK but that's about it. Maik seems a bit outclassed here, several points on scoring behind RvB and 70/30 in the model, so it's a bit surprising to see him marked up at 6/4. I think we can actually have a little punt here, 0.25u van Barneveld 4/7, it's right on the borderline of betting at that price, but factor in the possibility that Maik has a bit of trouble given who he's facing compared to random guy with the same stats, we can take it.

van Duijvenbode/Meikle - Dirk did get a bink/final back to back earlier in the season, but has been somewhat under the radar since then and hasn't done a huge deal since then, notably bricking both Euro Tours to miss that major and had early exits in the ones he did play. Ryan has been really quiet and it's actually a bit of a surprise he's actually made the field, I've talked about him somewhat in previous years but this year I don't recall noticing him at all. A quarter final in October was likely required to make this field. Seems like an important one for Dirk who is favoured in the low 70% range in the market, so I think we can go with another underdog shot here, 0.25u Meikle 12/5, there is a concerning consistency issue that might undo this but the model says 38%, so I'll take the shot and hope Ryan keeps things tidy (and that Dirk remains quiet).

Bunting/Anderson - This is a pretty tasty first round matchup. Always hard to say where Gary is considering how often he takes time off, but apart from the German series he looks to have played most of the Pro Tour and done enough to get here. Bunting is the higher seed but the slight betting underdog at 11/10, Ando's about a point ahead in scoring and more consistent, but the model says coinflip. So we can pass this one.

Final section might be later tonight, or it might be in the morning. Will see how things go.

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