Monday 29 November 2021

Pre-worlds FRH rankings

Congrats to Peter, solid final performance to get over the line, pity for Ryan but that performance (and the prize money) is going to push him well up towards the top sixteen and should set him up very nicely for 2022.

Tour card holder just started, Krcmar throwing some filth, picked out Wilson, Kcuik and Waites as who I thought would get through but Boris was certainly very much on the radar and will take some stopping playing like that. Sedlacek already down unfortunately.

So, new FRH rankings:

1 Gerwyn Price
2 Peter Wright
3 Michael van Gerwen
4 James Wade
5 Jonny Clayton
6 Jose de Sousa
7 Rob Cross
8 Dimitri van den Bergh
9 Gary Anderson (UP 1)
10 Michael Smith (DOWN 1)
11 Krzysztof Ratajski
12 Joe Cullen
13 Ryan Searle (UP 6)
14 Dave Chisnall (DOWN 1)
15 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)
16 Dirk van Duijvenbode (DOWN 1)
17 Stephen Bunting (DOWN 1)
18 Danny Noppert (DOWN 1)
19 Brendan Dolan (NEW)
20 Luke Humphries (DOWN 2)

Outside of Searle's obvious huge jump, the only chances are that Ando's now about 1250 points ahead of Smith on account of getting a round further (both are within 10k of Dimitri so all of 8-10 are very close), while Dolan's semi gets him back into the top 20 after hovering in the lower ends of the top 32 for quite some time following his return to form in the past years, well deserved. King is the player to drop out but remains 21st. Lower down, plenty of players in that lower end of the top 32 went out first round or were one and done, so Gurney jumps back up to 23, Heta's in the top 25, van dee Voort was in the top 30 anyway and a bit of a gap from 30th upwards means he only actually climbed the one place, while O'Connor is back in the top 40. None of these rankings include worlds money but these are all seeded so nothing would change.

That marks the end of another betting season as well - it is by far the lowest volume season entirely down to the lack of the European Tour, but in terms of ROI it is easily the best. I'm in two minds whether that is a good thing - I've noticed in a lot of places the lines simply seem to be closer to where I'm projecting, but I do wonder if I am being too cautious with some marginal plays and whether I should go for more volume, take a lower ROI but make more money because we're putting more in play. I suppose what I could always do is just lower the betting sizes more often than I do and use the 0.1 unit, which I normally only consider on long shot punts, on marginal plays. It's not going to make much, but it's kind of the opposite of what I do when there is a large odds-on favourite who is being undervalued.

Will also list you the top 32 players I have in my rankings this season on basis of overall turn-based average in order. Removing anyone with less than 100 legs. It's van Gerwen, Price, Wright, de Sousa, Clayton, Dobey, Ratajski, van den Bergh - Noppert, van Duijvenbode, M Smith, Cross, Aspinall, Searle, Heta, Humphries - Schindler, Dolan, Cullen, Wade, van Barneveld, R Smith, Rydz, Chisnall - White, Gurney, King, Anderson, Soutar, Wilson, Lewis, Hempel. Whose inclusion/exclusion surprises you?

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