Brooks/Clayton - Bradley just took the chances he was offered really, three legs in seven visits. Clayton looked real solid on his own throw, so I'm thinking it's going to be tricky for Bradley in this one. Market has Jonny as a huge favourite as you would expect, and 1/5 is somewhat justified. Could even be a tick or two shorter really.
Davis/van Barneveld - Joe's game really wasn't there unfortunately. Barney had a fun game with Smith where he came up just short, failing to hold in the decider but generally not doing much of anything wrong. I really don't want to recommend Barney at 1/14, but I can't see how he doesn't win this one.
Campbell/Humphries - Matt was a bit up and down, the middle part of the game he played fine, missing doubles for two big checkouts to break and a steady hold, but the other legs were a bit of a mess. Humphries wasn't doing a great deal wrong throughout his game against Suljovic to be honest. Market thinks 75/25 Luke, which seems spot on to me.
Ashton/Henderson - Lisa didn't even get a dart at a double, only really the last leg where she was scoring heavily enough to truly warrant one, but Michael killed in five visits so that was that. John was kind of similar but did get a couple in the first leg and a chunk in the last, albeit at a less than ideal double. Market thinks 2-1 in favour of Hendo, that looks about right to me, maybe Lisa has a bit more of a chance than that but my stats don't include the World Cup so maybe it's more correct than I think.
de Decker/Sherrock - Mike mainly just had a few half chances against Clemens, Gabriel wasn't doing too much wrong apart from one scruffy leg which Mike took. Fallon was beaten easily by Peter but the game was marred by lots of missed doubles from both sides. Market has this fairly close, sort of about a 60/40 Mike game, that feels like it should be about right given how de Decker has played of late.
de Sousa/Suljovic - Jose was just fine against Campbell, one or two iffy legs but nothing major. Mensur was steady, didn't win too many quickly but was right there with some very good scoring in the legs he lost, definitely having a fine autumn. Market thinks Jose takes this a bit more than 60%, but not quite two in three, that looks to be just about right really. I've got it two in three but factor in recent form and I can accept movement of a couple of percent.
Anderson/Smith - Gary was basically in neutral and did enough to win, it wasn't a good performance in the slightest but it didn't need to be. Smith was very steady in the legs he won but couldn't quite get enough scoring in the others. Think Michael's being undervalued a bit here, I'm thinking 60/40, market has him at 4/5. It's not quite enough to bet, but maybe if you see him win the bull you can take a small poke at it.
Clemens/Wright - Gabriel looked maybe the best he's been for some time in a professional display against de Decker, while Wright was in a bit of a scrappy game. 65/35 Wright is where the value is projected, Peter probably takes it slightly more than that but especially with the vig in the game it's nowhere near enough to take a punt.
van Gerwen/Cullen - Joe did enough to beat Hendo, although what would have happened if John had have held the two times he had darts to do so is another question, probably still wins but it would be more interesting. MvG also won 5-0, doing a little bit better than Cullen did statistically. Michael is shorter than 1/2 here, that maybe underrates Joe ever so slightly, but there's no real edge here.
So yeah, if you were looking for any additional tips, sorry, there are none.
No comments:
Post a Comment