Wednesday 24 November 2021

PC Finals tips - section two

Smith/Borland - Smith's rightly a decent favourite here. Borland's been a steady enough player over the last couple of years who's gotten a few decent scalps and can't be written off completely, but Smith's at a different level to be honest. 75/25 sort of game I feel, so I think the market is underrating William a touch, but not enough to consider a punt.

Gurney/Soutar - Daryl's been slowly drifting down the rankings, not exactly playing badly with a steady scoring rate just shy of 92, but without the sort of notable runs that we've seen in previous years and the game seems a touch off its prior peak. Alan's had a great first season, although probably fair to say the better work was in the early stages of 2021. Scoring is comparable to Gurney's, but it's structured so that Daryl feels like a 55/45 favourite, and perhaps a bit surprisingly the market agrees, cooling on Soutar enough that the line looks correct.

Rydz/Suljovic - Callan's begun to win titles, and is a very dangerous player while in form, while Mensur's picked up his game a tad over the last two to three months, while not back to where he was at his peak, it's at least prevented a decline. Feels flippy to me, and the model agrees calling it 52/48 Rydz, the market basically can't split them, although it does give Mensur the tiniest of edges. Nothing to see here betting wise.

Wade/Evans - James continues to play solid stuff, still chucking at a high level while a notable step behind the true elite and, in fairness, behind the next tier of players as well. Still should be more than dangerous enough to beat Evans who's not had a great deal to write home about and has had some pretty mediocre days throughout the season. Wade is favoured three to one in the market, which feels perhaps slightly too much just on gut, and on data it actually looks more like two to one. Really doesn't seem stylistically that this is the sort of matchup we want to take a flyer on, but wouldn't talk you out of a bet on Ricky if you're that way inclined.

Searle/Whitlock - Pretty bad floor season for Simon, who only just scraped into the field, this is in comparison to Ryan who's truly stepped up his game on both TV and the floor and comes in as the number five seed and around a two to one favourite in the markets. That might be doing a tiny disservice to Whitlock, who's not played complete trash, but I'm only looking at 13/8 to 7/4 to be a correct line rather than 2/1, it's certainly not the kind of underdog disparity that we're passing on in the game above. Maybe Simon's experience shows, who knows.

Joyce/Woodhouse - Ryan's put together some alright games, and looked the best he's been for a while in the Slam. Luke's not been bad, but hasn't really stepped on when many thought he might have done and has been lingering in the 40-50 range of the order of merit for some time now. This appears a tough one to call on paper, would probably project 60/40 Joyce blind, the model has it closer with Woodhouse actually passing 45%, but missing out on interpretation of greater inconsistency. If it wasn't for that then 13/8 would certainly be in consideration.

Cross/Wattimena - Another player who's had a real bad 2021, when was the last time Jermaine did anything? He's easily out of the top 32 and with the low seeding he has here, was actually in some danger of missing the worlds for a bit. Cross has picked his game up and added another major to his locker, and shouldn't be in any real danger here. The model actually gives Jermaine more than a puncher's chance, with a 41% projection that ignores Rob being real consistent and Wattimena being anything but, we can get good odds so I think we can throw a punt out, 0.1u Wattimena 3/1, if we say that the inconsistency takes off 5% chances it's still worth a go I think.

Aspinall/Smith - Nathan is another big name kind of like Chisnall who's had a quiet season in comparison to where he is ranked, albeit with better scoring, and he's definitely played better stuff in the latter half of the season. Jeff's been doing fine despite the irritating here and back from Canada which got to the point where if I remember rightly he missed a few events, but is here now for the main events. Really don't think Jeff has the power to create enough chances against Nathan, and the model gives this as surprisingly one sided with a near 80/20 projection. That is almost enough to make 4/11 a tempter, but we won't push quite that small an edge despite the favourite tag helping things. Jeff can be clinical when needed.

Remainder tomorrow, probably section three around lunchtime and the remainder in the evening.

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