Saturday 27 November 2021

Round 2 tips

Let's blast through these quickly:

Boulton/van der Voort - Line looks perfectly fine. Andy probably looked slightly better and he has the consistency edge, but 6/5 with a 44% chance, no thanks.

Rydz/Wade - Think the market's just about adapted enough to how good Callan is at this stage. 11/8 still doesn't look quite short enough, but it's short enough that we can't punt. Extremely live dog, but he'd need to be the favourite before we start really thinking about 11/8 as value. Concern that Callan wasn't tested yesterday, but then again James wasn't either.

Cross/Aspinall - Hmm, the market has it even? Can we go with Cross? It's really, really close. If we could see evens and it was a vigless market then I'd probably go with it. Both played solid and weren't really pressured yesterday, both are trending up after mediocre first halves of the season. Will pass and probably regret it.

Searle/Joyce - Market's got Searle as close to a 2/1 favourite. I've got him slightly more, not enough to seriously consider. Searle was merely competent and likely a bit lucky to advance, albeit Whitlock wasn't great, Joyce was probably slightly better. Can pass this one.

Smith/Gurney - Michael didn't really need to get out of second gear to beat Borland, seem to remember William missed a few doubles that could have made it more interesting. Gurney was fine against Soots, albeit lacking in fifteen darters a touch. Seems about 65/35 in the market, I think we can at least think about Gurney here who has course and distance. If he'd shown something a bit more yesterday and/or had better recent form relative to Smith I'd have thought about it more.

Meikle/Anderson - Game of the year contender that one of Ryan's yesterday. Real pressure to retain his card and he gets home. Gary really should have been out but for finding his game just in time, coupled with Bunting collapsing a bit. 0.25u Meikle 11/5, there is a big consistency issue but that's a huge price when the projections give it as it is with Meikle near to level, especially having just hit the performance of his life to add huge relief in terms of tour card retention chances.

Dolan/Edhouse - Big scalp for Ritchie to dump Chizzy out, didn't play great and Dave really should have got some breaks but couldn't manage it. Brendan looked extremely solid in putting out Chas Barstow and enters as better than a 1/2 favourite. This does seem like a two in three match for Brendan so the line is close enough to not bet.

Wright/Lewis - Peter was pushed real hard by Keane Barry and on another day he could easily have gone out, Adie was getting some plaudits for his performance against Huybrechts, which was a bit better than he has been playing of late, but he was kind of bailed by a couple of big outs with Kim waiting. Adie seems live enough in this one to take a shot, 0.25u Lewis 9/4, he's just over 40% as I see it so we'll take the stab.

Heta/Clemens - Gabriel was looking very comfortable early against Beaton but got dragged into a decider, while Damon was fine against Lennon without ever really hitting the heights he can do. Why this is so close in the market I have no idea, 0.25u Heta 3/4, he should be a lot closer to 1/2 really.

van Gerwen/Barneveld - Michael did what he needed to against Kevin Doets, steady five visit kills doing the job. Barney looked the best he's done for a while in seeing off the decent challenge that was Maik Kuivenhoven. Do I want to take 3/1? I think I'll go small, 0.1u van Barneveld 3/1, if he'd looked iffy in the first round and scraped through I'd probably decline but there's enough projection edge coupled with a good first round win to want to punt it.

Price/Schindler - Gerwyn looked bloody ordinary against Jason Lowe who, if he'd pinned some chances he had, could easily have been here. Martin dumped Ian White out with a good performance. This is a trivial small punt at the line it is, 0.1u Schindler 7/2, he won this one literally last week.

Smith/Humphries - I wouldn't mind watching this one, this should be dynamite. Smith looked fantastic in eliminating Rusty, while Luke needed to come from behind against Jason Heaver but got the job done in the end with a much better second half of the game. Market thinks it's close with Luke having the slightly better chances, that seems close enough to my opinion as well.

Clayton/Mitchell - Scott was first on yesterday, Jonny last. Nice fair scheduling from the PDC there. Scott was pushed all the way by Kleermaker, only really having the three terrible legs and looking very competent outside of those. Fortunately he won the last one. Clayton didn't look great against Tabern and was another big Welsh name who could have been out if his opponent had taken the chances presented to him. Jonny's probably a little bit too short in the market but I'd need more than 10/3 before I'd start thinking about a Scotty Dog flier. Call me when it's 4/1.

O'Connor/Ratajski - Willie survived a match dart against Chris Dobey in a high quality affair, while Krzysztof had close to a free win against Meulenkamp. If Willie repeats his form from yesterday then he's in with a chance but being just longer than 2/1 appears a fair assessment.

van den Bergh/Noppert - Dimitri and Danny both had wins that could probably be described as routine, Madars put up a little bit of resistance from 4-1 with the pressure off, Rowby also nicked a couple of legs after going down huge but these were more gifts from Noppert really. Danny is 6/4 which is in the ballpark of thinking about the punt, but his recent decent TV performances have kind of derailed the Noppert value train.

de Sousa/Labanauskas - Darius was excellent in dropping Mervyn King out who wasn't playing badly at all, another great game from board two that I'll need to catch up on. Jose kind of let Petersen back into the game from a won position but did get over the line yesterday, will need to be a bit more clinical today but he almost certainly will be. Jose being close to a 1/3 favourite appears perfectly correct to me.

So that's it. Two long small punt fliers, two standard dog plays and then Damon as a small favourite which should be larger.

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