Saturday 27 November 2021

PC quarters

Hope people were able to get the Searle tip in time, that mitigated somewhat of the damage of a fairly poor second round, Heta cruised in and I really should have thought about going heavier, but that would have been somewhat rash so no issues there. Looking back at what I did go for, Lewis had the darts in the decider so I'm fine with that, Meikle just forgot how to score, Schinder I don't think we can fault, Gerwyn just put in an unplayable performance, Barney just missed a couple of tiny chances in a close game. No regrets with the process, but looking at the three players in round two that I was marginal on as to whether to fire (Cross, Gurney, Noppert), they all won, so maybe I'm being a bit overly cautious in recommending plays. Maybe something to go back on and revisit, although I'm probably just going back in words and unless I've quoted the percentage my model has, the actual odds at the time and the reasoning as to why I didn't go for it, it may just end up being a whole bunch of noise.

Four quarters and we've got a few interesting names in there right now, including arguably the two best players running into each other.

Gurney/Searle - I've actually been pretty impressed with Daryl to be honest. He's needed a run and he's played extremely competently, and if Searle puts together a bit of an iffy display like he did in the first two rounds (not so much against Cross, he was fine in that one), he might not get away with it. I think 60/40 Searle, the market has it a touch closer which given how they have played this week, seems fine. Certainly not enough edge to be jumping on Ryan.

Clayton/van der Voort - Jonny got pushed all the way by Luke Humphries and survived multiple match darts after summarily dismissing Mitchell, while Vincent was a train against Noppert, every single leg he won being in five visits, which followed up a nervy encounter against Boulton which could have gone either way. This might be a step too far for Vinny, I've got it 70/30 which is actually slightly closer than the market which is saying 3/1 on VVDV, so definitely don't just lump on Clayton thinking that it's value. Not going to recommend the other way, although if it drifts to 7/2 or greater I wouldn't hate a tiny stab.

de Sousa/Dolan - Jose probably should have lost against Darius, the Lithuanian ace had six from 164 and could only generate one match dart which he obviously missed, and he wasn't particularly on top form against O'Connor either, so maybe it's not quite there for de Sousa, although he won't be complaining. Brendan got the scalp of Price, mostly just taking advantage of a dumpster fire section of legs to get him the edge then holding out, having earlier easily despatched Ritchie Edhouse. Market has this really close rating Brendan at better than 60/40, which seems a touch of an overreaction and nearly cause to go the other way and take de Sousa, who I am seeing as having better than two in three chances, but only just. I would probably jump all over 4/6, it's very marginal.

van Gerwen/Wright - Mentioned the MvG/RvB game, he was fine, he wasn't at his best against Gary and he seems to have been having a bit of a cry about the conditions, it is what it is and it's the same for both players. It'll look like sour grapes, but bitch about it after you've lost, don't give your opponent ammunition, Peter doesn't exactly need it. He was consistent enough against Heta to not let an early 3-0 lead escalate much further and he clawed it back after getting away with one against Adie. I'm going to go with the 0.25u Wright 9/5 which is available on Betfair, I think he's got around a 42% chance and with MvG's mindset seemingly not being there, I think it's worth pushing the boat out on this one.

That's your lot - I'm at the Blades game tomorrow so I very much doubt I get any tips up for the semis and finals. Be back probably Monday for FRH rankings and then instant worlds draw reactions.

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