Sunday 14 November 2021

Slam day 2 afternoon

Didn't watch any of it yesterday (football did for the afternoon session, circumstances beyond my control did for the evening session), mostly went as expected but a couple of surprises in there for sure, will mention how things went as we go game by game and try to extract some value - I'll post the afternoon stuff now and come back quite shortly with the evening session, just want to get it out there quickly:

Schindler/Rafferty - Martin seemed off, missed some doubles, unfortunate. Rafferty played well, holding his own throw solidly but never really doing enough to generate anything to break Price. Market is 2-1 in favour of Schindler, I have enough of a sample on Nathan that we can take it, 0.25u Schindler 1/2, Martin rates to be a big favourite, but only half a unit as Nathan looks to be trending upwards in the last month or two and definitely looked alright yesterday.

King/Rusty - Big surprise for Mervyn to lose that one. Just wasn't scoring much at all. Rusty was fine, just a bit off in the first one for the break and then couldn't get close to Clayton on Jonny's throw. About the same price in favour of Mervyn here, I think it's more like 60/40 though. Rusty at 2/1 is real tempting, especially if we know that they're going to maintain their respective form from yesterday. What the hell, 0.1u Rodriguez 2/1, we'll go small and see what happens.

Wade/Krcmar - Boris just couldn't do anything on his throw, mainly double hitting. Cross was giving nothing away on his, but Krcmar gave away his own throw too easily. Wade wasn't bad against Jim, just a couple of dodgy legs to be broken in the midgame really, not sure what was worse, still being on three figures after 18 darts or missing three clear at double ten. Most un-Wadey. Similar analysis to the last one, except Wade is slightly more of a favourite than King, and Boris didn't show too much yesterday, so an easy pass.

Bunting/Dobey - Stephen was involved in a decent duel early on, scoring extremely heavily in the legs he lost, Joyce just stealing what he could and pinching the match. Dobey just wasn't in top gear, combination of weak scoring and missed doubles gave Rowby enough chances. Market can barely split them, just giving Dobey the edge, but I can split them, 0.25u Dobey 5/6, he's playing well enough right now that he should take it two out of three. If Bunting plays like yesterday this could go horribly wrong, but we'll trust the bigger picture.

Joyce/Rowby - Ryan got the win with a very Wade-like performance, Rowby just did what he needed to, which you would think might favour Joyce in this one if he's in equally opportunistic mood today. Market's got a bit of vig and just under 60/40 in favour of Ryan, but I kind of think that should be the other way around to be honest. Joyce is barely scoring more than Rowby this season, and on winning legs Ryan's a clear point less which generates a 57% win chance for the Austrian. 0.1u Rodriguez 13/10, this seems a solid edge but there's enough uncertainty and variance that I'll cut the bet down to the minimum.

Williams/Cross - Jim just snook over the line against Wade, only the one real impressive leg to open then plodding along with six visit kills and scoring around 85 in the ones he lost. Cross wasn't really challenged by Krcmar and you feel he's got more gears if needed. The market seems to favour Cross, perhaps a little bit more than is warranted, but I can't really recommend a bet on Jim even at north of 2/1.

Ratajski/Price - Tantalising matchup to close the session, Ratajski played just fine to take what Martin offered and hit a few legs, especially on throw, that didn't allow Schindler a chance. Price we mentioned earlier, didn't look fantastic on throw, only getting the one leg in fifteen in a match that went with serve all the way, but the scoring was such that he was pressuring the Rafferty throw relentlessly, scoring over 110 a turn on it. Market thinks Price at more or less two in three (a bit of vig here), that is underrating Ratajski a bit here, but not enough to take it. 9/5 at 38% isn't really the sort of edge we're going to push against a world champion.

Back real soon.

No comments:

Post a Comment