Friday, 13 December 2019

Worlds day 1 bets

It's finally here! After weeks of anticipation, media hype and build up, the moment we've all been waiting for is upon us. But enough about the end of Corbyn's career, let's look at the darts, and today's one of those odd first round sessions where we know all of the players as (at least for the next few days) everyone's a tour card holder. Let's go from the top:

Klaasen v Burness - Jelle should win this. Then again, Nicholson should have won it last year, so what do we know. Klaasen's rated around 70/30 in the market, I think that's close to right. There may even be a small hint of value in Klaasen, I'm seeing some samples where he's up towards 80% to win this opening game, but at 4/11 given the fragility that we've seen in Jelle's game now and again, I really can't recommend it.

Huybrechts v Nentjes - We're seeing more or less a similar line here, and again I think we're close to a bet, but not quite there - however this time, it's the underdog that we're looking at. Geert's got a few samples where I'm thinking he should take this one time out of three, so to be offered 13/5 looks awfully tempting, especially if you're looking at the more recent form guide. I don't think it's quite enough, while Geert's played here before, I think that Kim's level if experience should count for a little in this situation and we can pass it up.

Humphries v Petersen - This one's priced a little closer at 60/40 in favour of the World Youth champion, and I think we have our first bet here - 0.25u Petersen 6/4. It's only Spreadex that are offering up this price, but I think even the 11/8 that's more widely available is probably still worth the shot. Season long, I'm seeing Devon as having about a 45% shot to claim this, but if I trim down to smaller more form based sample sizes, it becomes 50/50, and even towards Devon having the edge. We also have the unknown factor - this'll be the first time that Humphries will be announced as a world champion, with that comes a bit of added pressure. Plus, if Devon outperforms his season long form like he did last year (to our huge cost), it looks better and better for taking this side of the action.

van Gerwen v Match 1 winner - I can't really recommend anything here. There's a few conditional markets - Betfair has van Gerwen at 1/20 against Klaasen (and obv even shorter against Burness), 365 has the van Gerwen stage of elimination at 10/1 to be round two, so that's the sort of thing we're looking at. It's a little bit short, but it's not horrifically short, and I can't really see myself wanting to bet on Klaasen against MvG. Easy enough game to avoid.

Last couple of hours to get in on the fantasy comp, I've posted about it enough so just read down for the details if you want to beat the 5pm deadline.

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