Thursday, 19 December 2019

Worlds day 9 bets

Brown v Asada - I'm pretty sure that this isn't the game that Keegan would have wanted before the draw, but it is what it is, and they can't be separated in the market. That appears alright to me, Keegan's a quality operator these days, but Seigo's incredibly talented and if he can avoid starting a little bit sluggishly as he did against Mansell, then he's got every chance. Avoiding this game but it should be very tight.

Whitlock v Ward - Would normally be looking at an auto-Whitlock lay with the Aussie at nearly 1/3, but this is one of those odd spots where we're not going to do so. Harry's been better than the line throughout the year, but the quality's front loaded and after the first few months have gone, projections really don't like his chances at all. Won't bet this one, Ward's first round win was ground out and lacked enough quality to make me think he can get through Simon in this one.

West v Searle - Coinflip in the market. That looks alright to me. Over year long samples, this appears about 55%, 60% in favour of Steve, trim it down a bit and it goes the other way. Neither's done a huge amount this year that gives me much confidence in their ability to get over the line if this gets into a drawn out affair which is frankly threatened, so I'll take the safe option and not touch the game with a barge pole.

Lewis v Reyes - Simple one to analyse this, the line is at 2-1 in favour of the Stokie, which is too much. Cristo's not been brilliant this year, but to say Adie has would be an exaggeration, this is more of a 60/40 game in my eyes, or possibly closer, that Reyes has managed to get through a real tough game in the opening round can only help. 0.25u Reyes 2/1.

Gurney v Pipe - Wish we were talking about Gurney against Pratnemer, oh well, it is what it is and the market's at near 75/25 in favour of the Irishman. That's too much, Justin's been playing too well all season and is not that far off Daryl at all. Like Cristo, he's also come through a tough game (albeit against someone not quite so highly regarded, but you wouldn't think that on performances), and that's got to boost confidence hugely. 0.25u Pipe 11/4, seems very much worth the shot.

Durrant v Heta - The game I think a lot of people were waiting for, regardless of who came through the opening round to face Glen. It's Damon, and his opening round game was very solid, if not spectacular (although if he'd pinned a couple of big outshots we might be saying something very different). Damon's 9/4, is Glen that much better than Jose de Sousa that we shouldn't pile on Damon again at more or less the same line? He's not *that* much better, but it's enough that it looks fair.

van den Bergh v Payne - This game is priced close? Really? 0.5u van den Bergh 4/5, Josh is pure and simply considerably worse than Dimitri, and unless I've missed some serious news on the Belgian I don't see how this isn't an automatic lump on.

Suljovic v Sherrock - 0.1u Sherrock 8/1, what the hell, it's a big price and to say she can't repeat it twice in a row about 15% of the time isn't ridiculous. Mensur's a step up from Evetts, but not that much of a step up. Go with the tiny sizing to give a bit of interest, her performance in round one was a lot better than a lot of people that came through.

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