Sunday, 22 December 2019

Worlds day 10 bets

Hard to think a sixth of the field has gone since the last time I made a tips post, but they've got 96 players to work through and it has to be a bit fast and furious initially. You know you're getting towards the business end when they cut back to three games per day, as they have today, and we'll see Michael van Gerwen be the first player to reach the last sixteen, unless Ricky Evans can pull off a monumental upset (afternoon edit - whoops, these are all actually last 32 games, was looking a couple of days ahead to where there's a mix between two rounds). Before that one, we've got five games to look at, so let's look from the top.

Clayton v Bunting - Jonny was really good against Jan Dekker on Friday afternoon, only giving up the three legs, scoring heavily, not missing doubles, the 95 average probably being a fair reflection, while Bunting has had a couple of extra days rest following his titanic struggle with Jose Justicia, which he could probably have needed. The bookies have this even for all intents and purposes, neither player being even as long as evens, and while you'd expect that from a 16 v 17 seed matchup, I don't think it's that close. 0.25u Clayton 19/20, he's projecting at around a 60/40 favourite, if not a little bit better, in all but the most recent of recent samples, if how Bunting did at Minehead worries you, then fair enough, but at the same time, it's always been just glimpses for Stephen, he needed an 84 checkout on the bull to prevent a guy who's just lost his tour card from beating him in the previous round.

Labanauskas v Hopp - Max's game against Benito was a serious grind on Friday night, at least that's what it felt like at the venue - while I never really felt van de Pas was playing at Hopp's level, he was just about doing enough to stay around and force the last set. Darius meanwhile has had a whole week off after his shock victory over Ian White, a game that could only really be described as perfect timing - it's pretty hard to score eight maximums, hit >50% on doubles and average 100 and lose. The market also has this as very close, possibly on account of that win from the Lithuanian, and this seems almost about right. Season long this is nearly 60/40, but trim off the first month or so and it's either a flip, or there's only a very marginal edge with Hopp being 10/11, so I can avoid this one I think.

Aspinall v Ratajski - Nathan looked pretty good on Friday it has to be said, against a real potential banana skin in Danny Baggish, while Ratajski didn't look that great against Lerchbacher, at least on normal metrics, although after the first two legs of the second set he didn't need more than fifteen darts to win any of the eight legs he took, finding the extra gear. He can't afford to take a set off like he did in the opener, but now that he's finally got a win on the stage, I don't think he does - 0.25u Ratajski 13/10, all the projections I see have it between the range of 50/50, or 55/45 in favour of the Pole, so to get a small odds against advantage seems enough to go with.

Wade v Beaton - James had no trouble with Ritchie Edhouse, at least in terms of the overall set score, Edhouse did win five legs in a 3-0 set loss and average more than Wade, he just missed way, way too many doubles. Beaton looked magnificent in places in his win over Kyle Anderson, hitting treble 20 a lot and hitting some big outs, but only ending averaging 92. Odd game. This is one of only two games today where there's a significant favourite with Wade being about 70/30 in the market's eyes, that I think is pretty much bang on the money, at least season long, so I'll pass, although the one caveat I'll add before you put Wade into an accumulator is that if you look at the Matchplay onwards, it looks a bit more like 60/40 after Wade's best spell drops off the sample, so be cautious if you simply must bet.

Huybrechts v Noppert - All-Euro clash, as Kim comes off a surprise (in the general public's eyes, we of course backed it) victory over a Rob Cross who really wasn't at the races, while Danny Noppert got through a decent test against upcoming talent Callan Rydz in a five setter. Noppert is a small favourite, although it's only in the 60/40 range, which is where I'd have put it without looking at the stats. The stats are a bit variable - depending on what period you're looking at, it floats between two to one in favour of Noppert, to just 55/45 in favour of the Dutchman. I'd have thought we might have a bit of an opportunity here given Kim's last win and given that Noppert, despite being a former Lakeside finalist and now PDC TV finalist, always seems a bit underrated, but I guess not.

van Gerwen v Evans - Seems a while since that game against Klaasen, doesn't it? That's because it was. Only question here is whether Ricky can do a bit more of what he did on Friday afternoon against McGeeney, at least after the first set where he was more or less gifted it and didn't need to get out of first gear. If he can do what he did in the last two legs for a run of about an hour, then who knows? I know not to put any hard earned cash on it, Evans is 9/1, which is only the tiniest of tiny value, and if you look from around May or June onwards, after which Evans hasn't really been on it, van Gerwen projects to win over 90% of the time, so any tiny value evaporates. Just leave the game alone.

Fantasy scoring is now updated after a couple of days away by the way. Monday tips to follow later.

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