Saturday, 28 December 2019

Worlds day 13 bets

Durrant tip safely enough in, looked a little bit hairy for a while but he came through strong when it counted, today we'll know our complete quarter final lineup. One other note on yesterday, which goes back to something I posted on over the break - with Anderson losing in the last sixteen, does he have any Premier League claim whatsoever? Apart from getting what was a pretty easy passage through to the last eight of the Grand Slam and winning the World Cup, has he done anything at all that warrants a Premier League spot? Are Sky going to just use the Barney rule and invite Gary due to popularity when his performances don't warrant it? I kind of hope that Gary says he's not interested in just accumulation of more money and rules himself out, concentrating on the few ranked events he actually plays, but we'll see. In any case, Aspinall surely has to be a lock now. It was probably 98-99% before, but that remaining sliver of doubt is gone now.

Beaton v Labanauskas - Wow, what an opportunity for both these players, Beaton having looked solid enough against Kyle Anderson and James Wade without ever really hitting massive heights, some nice outshots aside, while Labanauskas got rid of Matt Edgar, Ian White in a great showing, and then Max Hopp in a fairly close affair. Market thinks this is incredibly tight, and I tend to agree - apart from a couple of weird samples where Darius appears to have a substantial edge from around April-May onwards, it's generally looking like either a coinflip, or Beaton having a 50-55% edge, which given the pricing isn't really enough to consider a bet here. Both will surely be treating it as a final.

Huybrechts v Humphries - Big shot in the other half of the draw here, Kim's come through a real close game with Nentjes, cleaned out a somewhat below par Rob Cross before being just that little bit better against Danny Noppert, while Luke looked solid against Devon Petersen, took out Wattimena in a match that went all the way, then experience told against young German upstart Nico Kurz. Luke is interestingly favoured, at around 60/40 - and I think we have a punt, 0.25u Huybrechts 6/4, on very long season long stats this seems about 57-58% in favour of Humphries, that in itself isn't enough to consider, but from say May onwards it's either 50/50, or the Belgian has a small edge, so I think we need to take the price here.

van den Bergh v Lewis - Winner of this will face Aspinall in what'd be a very interesting quarter final, Dimitri looked spectacular against Payne before being dragged down against Luke Woodhouse, while Adie needed to come from behind against Cristo Reyes and then had another game go the distance in one of the matches of the tournament against Darren Webster, Market has this evens for all intents and purposes, so 0.25u van den Bergh 10/11, he's simply played that much better than Lewis throughout the whole year, and surely Lewis having been through two really tough matches will have taken a bit out of him against the younger, fresher player. Projections show Dimitri at over 60% throughout, and we can't even say that's all inconsistency, take out the first few months and Dimitri's figure, while still a bit more than the tour average, does drop quite a bit, and Adie's actually overtakes it.

Wright v de Zwaan - Boy, this one is going to be incredible if both players turn up. Wright hasn't really got out of third gear in taking out the Asian pairing of Malicdem and Asada, but just doing enough to get through, but while de Zwaan was a bit mediocre in scraping over the line against Darin Young, he was incredible against Dave Chisnall with one of the performances of the tournament so far. The bookies can barely separate them with Jeffrey just the right side of evens from a punters' perspective, but I think we have to go with 0.25u Wright 5/6, it's only up until very, very recently that this doesn't project as an easy 2-1 game in favour of Peter (or better), Jeffrey's level of play in this tournament is obviously a huge concern, but will he be starting to think ahead a bit? Wright's obviously been here a lot more often than Jeffrey has, if de Zwaan wins this he should be a big favourite in the quarters, possibly (probably?) get into the Premier League, certainly be live in the semis... this could possibly be the biggest match of his life, how will he react?

Durrant v Dobey - Glen got through a struggle against Gurney yesterday where nobody could hold their throw for long enough more or less right up until the point where Glen was throwing for the match, this was after an easy enough win over Damon Heta, by contrast Dobey averaged over a ton in a great performance against Fallon Sherrock, who continued her own great form for 3-4 sets before Chris pulled away, Dobey having previously got away with one against Ron Meulenkamp. Market has Glen as favourite, but not by much at 8/11, it's rightly recognising that Chris is very good, but he's not that good - 0.25u Durrant 8/11, Glen's projecting at a 2-1 favourite, or better, in more or less any sample I care to look at, and if you're looking at Chris's averages in this tournament, they are seriously inflated by running into players hitting big legs against him on a regular basis - apart from Michael Smith nobody has a higher losing average than Dobey in this event. Glen's won around the same proportion of legs as Chris and has won them faster.

Price v Whitlock - Final game of the event and I don't really feel the need to go into a great amount of detail, Price was an easy winner over Hendo yesterday after a mediocre performance against O'Connor, while Whitlock, after an easy win over Ward, looked pretty mediocre throughout against King, it's only that King simply fell apart after five legs. Simon's so hugely outclassed here, the line of 2/13 on Price does not look unfair in the slightest.

Quarter final tips to follow tomorrow morning.

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