Wednesday 18 December 2019

Worlds day 7 bets

All in all, Madars Razma not winning when throwing for the match aside, today was, in the words of that great philosopher Ice Cube, a good day. Or, in the words of Nico Kurz, phenomenal, I'm so fucking happy. Let's plow on to day eight as we get close to finishing off the opening round games.

Pipe v Pratnemer - Tough one to consider. Aside from his small foray into the World Masters, we don't know much about Ben, that said, 0.1u Pratnemer 11/2, this is one I expect to fail fairly often, but not over 80% of the times often. Pipe has been much improved in 2019, but you would have to think that the crowd would be against him, Pratnemer's not a complete noob and he's come through a decent level qualifier, so I think it's worth having a bit of a prod at this. As I say, this likely looks stupid when Pipe only concedes two legs, but that's a big price.

Joyce v Dekker - This'll close out round one, and the market has Joyce as a decent, near two to one favourite. Given Ryan came through the Pro Tour, which Dekker wasn't really close to, that doesn't seem unreasonable, and I think I can get away with no bet here. Season long it maybe points to Dekker, but from around April onwards it points solidly in favour of Joyce, possibly enough that we should consider taking the 8/15. I certainly wouldn't hate it if you guys went with it, but I won't be recommending a play here.

Henderson v Richardson - Round two under way fully now, and this one might be a tough one to call, Hendo's not been in the greatest of form, and I don't think Richardson's really lit it up, although he at least managed to fall over the line against Suzuki in the opening round. Market looks a bit better than 60/40 in favour of the Scot, season long that looks close enough, although once we get past the first few months and into the summer and beyond, it leans pretty solidly in John's favour. Think I can pass this one, James has a habit of doing fun things at this event and at least has a win in his favour already.

Beaton v Anderson - Bookies can't split these two. I'm seeing nothing but Anderson. Sure, I've been wrong about this a few times, and what he's been saying in his interviews maybe goes some way to explaining things, but he managed to grind it out in his opening round from a decent sized hole, if he was that lacking in confidence then he wouldn't do it. 0.25u Anderson evs, I still believe at least.

Dobey v Meulenkamp - Ron's straight back after seeing off the interesting challenge of Ben Robb, who reeled in the biggie but didn't do a great deal else as the Dutchman won in straight sets. Dobey's more or less a danger to go deep in anything now and will provide a tough test. Chris is near 1/2 here, which I'm thinking is a bit much - 0.25u Meulenkamp 7/4, the projections I'm looking at are more or less seeing it as a flip, or if Dobey's a favourite, more a 55/45 favourite, not near two in three. Thinking the straight return will benefit Ron as well.

Noppert v Rydz - About the same price here, market clearly showing Callan a lot of deserved respect. I think there's still a bit of underlying disrespect for the quality of Noppert's game, despite him making a major final just last month, so 0.5u Noppert 1/2. Rydz beat Lennon, but Noppert seems a fair bit better than Steve right now, and Rydz didn't really set the world on fire while doing so, Danny should have too much here.

Chisnall v van der Voort - This one should be tasty, Vincent looked good in the first round and Chizzy's looked good all year. Market thinks Dave at around the 70/30 mark, which I think is a fair enough assessment. Vincent's game is strong enough that he's not without chances, but Dave's a clear tier or two above him as of right now so the market's adapted more or less correctly I reckon. Easy enough to avoid.

Price v O'Connor - And now to the main question of the evening, will Price continue his record of fucking up early in a World Championship? 4/1 reckons he does. I won't be partaking in that one. That seems about right looking season long, but cut out Willie's early season form and the 1/5 available on Price, while not worth an investment, appears acca safe.


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