Sunday, 22 December 2019

Worlds day 11 bets

Final day before Christmas incoming, and we'll trim the field down to 20 who'll come back for the title from Friday onwards, suppose the only real big surprise today was Wade going out to Steve Beaton, while both our bets lost (still frustrated about how Ratajski simply couldn't follow up a break with a hold, Clayton just never got going), neither of them were those we thought were locks, more close games where we thought we had enough of a lean one way or another. To Monday we go, six more games incoming:

Kurz v Humphries - Huge chance for either of these given the winner plays Kim Huybrechts, we could potentially see this one for years to come. Kurz only played Friday, whereas Humphries has had much more of a break after taking out Petersen then Wattimena pretty early on in the event. Odds are in favour of the world youth champion, as you might expect, but only at 4/7, which I think is fair enough. We've not got much of anything on Kurz beyond this event, and in this event he's scoring about a point and a half less per turn than Humphries is. Over a game of this length I think that's enough, Luke does have the advantage of course and distance here, whereas it's clearly going to be the longest game of Nico's short career. Will leave it alone.

Lewis v Webster - Now here we've got two players with a lot more experience and data. Webster looked pretty decent for the first time in a while over Yamada, whereas Lewis got in a real slugfest with Cristo Reyes in which, while lucky to come out on the winning side, he showed some signs of what we know he can do. Lewis is the favourite, but nowhere near as much as I thought - it's about 60/40. Overreaction to their first games? Maybe. Then again, as mediocre as Darren's been all year, I'm not seeing enough of an edge for Lewis in enough time periods to make me want to bet on Adie. It fluctuates from just a bit over 60% to near 70%, so if their first round games had have turned out the other way, I might have gone with it, but if Webster's turned enough around that he is playing better than he has done for a while, any perceived edge goes away. No bet again.

Woodhouse v van den Bergh - Seems like it's a long time again since we saw Luke dump Michael Smith out, whereas it was only yesterday where Dimitri lit things up with a three figure average over Josh Payne. There's enough credit given to Luke that the Belgian, while he's the favourite, isn't even 1/2 to take it. I think that there's enough combination of Woodhouse's quality and Dimitri's propensity to have real bad games from nowhere that it looks a fair line.

Chisnall v de Zwaan - This could be the game of the day (if it's not this one, it's the last one), could be 180's and general high scoring everywhere. Both had some struggles getting through, Jeffrey more so, but averaged pretty similarly. Line's about the same as the last one with Chizzy around 65/35, which is another one that I think I can avoid. Season long I might have looked at de Zwaan, with the projections for long run samples getting near to 60/40, but the projections gravitate towards where the line is actually at once we get down to in and around the Matchplay onwards. Moving on then.

Anderson v Searle - Gary had no issues with a bit below par Brendan Dolan, whereas Searle played really well in the second round against Steve West in a game where he needed to play well, otherwise it might have been a bit closer than the 3-0 set scoreline suggests. Gary's 4/11, that looks about right to me. Season long the projections look just fine, over the last 4-6 months it swings a bit more towards Searle, with Ryan maybe getting about a 40% shot, but over the last few months he's not been winning too many and has been wildly inconsistent. If Ryan can play as well as he did in the previous round and drag Gary into a longer game, then maybe he has a shot, but I won't be punting on it.

Wright v Asada - After one of the games of the year, Peter's in against another Asian Tour player in Asada, and is simply too short. 0.1u Asada 11/2. Peter was not underperforming in the slightest on Friday, he simply got tested heavily by someone in Noel Malicdem who's comparable to Seigo in strength, and we only need a combination of Seigo hitting peak form and/or Wright having a bit of an off day to work 20% of the time for this to look really good.

That's your lot for before the break - wishing all readers a happy holiday period, I might pop back at some point before Friday to trip report Ally Pally if I have the time, but if not, I will be back with tips for Friday's matches.

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