Saturday 14 December 2019

Worlds day 3 bets

Kim Huybrechts! System works sometimes! Sure, it'd work better if Luke Humphries hadn't played the game of his fucking life, and if despite that Jermaine Wattimena had have put him away in leg ten, but still! Profit!

Some quick thoughts on today - was a bit surprised at how easy it was for Labanauskas, but he was lights out for the first two sets, the best I've seen him play in a long time. Meikle/Yamada was a decent quality game for the first couple of sets, then it got super scrappy and Yuki edged through, will see what happens in the next round. Paul Lim wasn't bad, Luke Woodhouse was just better, mentioned the Jermaine game, now we have the evening session. McGeeney/Campbell went roughly how I thought it would, Matt was probably a bit better than I thought but Mark still came through, that Lerchbacher game was a big shock. Zoran played great stuff, probably the best for eighteen months, then Barney. My god. That interview afterwards on livedarts, he seems like a broken man.

So, tomorrow:

Anderson v Zong - Don't think I'll be touching this one, Kyle's 1/8 which I don't think is even remotely good value given Kyle's inability to turn performances into results, Zong probably has just enough in his game where he might be able to click immediately, nick a set and put some nerves into play, so I'll pass on it.

Smith v Teehan - Don't think I do anything here. Ciaran's been around the scene a bit, so I have a rough idea of where his game's at despite not a huge amount of data, the market pricing Smith at 1/3 seems fair enough in my opinion.

Dolan v Kumar - 1u Dolan 1/10, I think we may as well print the tenth of a unit. One thing I didn't realise when I wrote up Nitin's preview is that he played some of the Asian Tour, and a sub-70 rating on that tour against someone of Brendan's experience and current form I don't think cuts it even 5% of the time.

White v Labanauskas - Into a second round game, and I don't think I can bet on this one. As impressive as Darius was in the first two sets today, I don't think it's going to translate to beat someone of White's calibre as often as required. He's 7/2, and season long I have Darius at about 25% to claim the match, once we cut down to more recent samples it drops. If you think he can come back tomorrow and repeat that performance then don't let me stop you, but it's very hard for me to recommend betting against Ian here.

Monk v Perales - Looking at the roughly 60/40 line in favour of Monk, I'd have thought it'd be a slam dunk bet in favour of Arron, and over the course of the year, it looks that way - season long it's around 75/25. The worrying thing is that Arron did much of his better work early in the year, if I trim down to, say, June onwards, then it's much closer to where the line stands. I think I will go 0.25u Monk 4/6 if only because it pops back up nicely enough into Arron's favour if we trim down further to post-Matchplay form, Arron has at least played on this stage before which should count for something.

Boulton v Baggish - Can we get a USA double? I think there's a shot, and I really wish I had a lot more reliable data on Danny to think about laying Andy in this one. I do think there's a good shot at an upset, but Danny's already priced up at 11/8, which doesn't offer a hugely enticing punt. It could look silly if Danny blows him out, which I think is a possibility, but Andy's a very experienced competitor and I think I'd need a bit longer price to really consider going for the American here.

Richardson v Suzuki - This one's going to be super intriguing, I kind of want to look at this objectively and think that James should be that much better and we should just print on Richardson, but Mikuru's got enough about her, and there's enough possible flaws in James' game, that a 1/5 price is probably one to pass on.

Smith v Woodhouse - Luke's beaten Paul Lim, now we get someone at the opposite end of the career trajectory, but I think there's enough of a chance that he can go a round further - 0.1u Woodhouse 9/2. I'm seeing a lot of samples where Woodhouse is easily in the one in four, maybe even one in three range - Smith's last year's finalist, sure, but Woodhouse has shown enough over the course of the year that he's competitive enough, if he can beat Gurney and whitewash Lim on your first two appearances on different TV stages, then what's to say he can't nick this enough that 9/2 is value?

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