Sunday, 15 December 2019

Worlds day 4 bets

Let's just keep laying top 8 seeds, it's clearly sustainable

Summary of day 3 - my god, Kyle Anderson keeps making things so difficult for himself. Zong played a hell of a game, but really, Kyle, this shouldn't have been close. Ross Smith was clearly a level or two below his standard and Ciaran Teehan was likely the opposite, which is more than enough for a 3-0 drubbing, Brendan Dolan got through in straight sets, but as Brendan said post match, it was a lot closer than it looked, Kumar played well, if he can nick that first set it could have been a lot, lot different. The Ian White... I'm really not sure what happened there, actually I am. Look past the conventional stats. He smacked Darius up in the legs he won with four in four visits and four in five visits. Then he averaged 85 in the legs he lost. Even that out and he wins.

Evening session, Arron Monk doesn't show up at all, Justicia didn't play great, didn't need to, advances, whatever, Danny Baggish ground out a not particularly pretty game, Boulton hit a bunch of 180's and finished alright, just seemingly not much else in between. Mikuru Suzuki probably should have beat James Richardson, coming from a 2-0 hole in sets to force a deciding leg, probably just a couple of missed doubles at key times, but fair play to James for sticking in there against a hostile crowd. Then Luke Woodhouse made us all rich by just nicking enough five visit legs and getting past a fairly off the pace Michael Smith. I say that, he averaged nearly 100 in the legs Luke won, he just didn't get let in. Sweet for us I guess.

Tomorrow there's just the evening session so I'll blast out the bets now:

Lennon v Rydz - Hmm, seems to be quite a bit of adjustment already on Lennon's relative form this year, in that Callan's only 6/4. If you've not seen Rydz before, expect maximums. The line's more or less where I'd expect it to be in terms of projections, which is a shame, thought there might have been value one way or the other, either not recognising that Steve's playing a bit better than his form suggests, or not recognising that Callan's really fucking good. Oh well, next game.

O'Connor v Kantele - I really want to bet on Marko in this game. I really, really do. His performances over the course of the year aren't such that Willie should be a 1/3 favourite in this one, and if you cut back more recently after Willie won his event, it's screaming out to bet on Marko. There's just a few things here - one, Willie's actually won an event. He knows how to win. Two, Willie's very streaky, and given his performance in Minehead that's a worrying sign. Finally, is there any set of nations that have disappointed so consistently on the worlds stage quite so often as the Scandis? I'm going to look back at this in 24 hours and wonder why I didn't punt, I'm sure, but I'll pass.

van der Voort v Barry - I really wish I had data on Keane. I really, really do, it's a tempting price given how highly he is rated, but I simply don't have it, so I've got to pass this game up based purely on two things - Vincent's had a highly underrated season, and I don't think we're getting enough value on Keane to think that he can nick this often enough given point one.

Anderson v Dolan - No bet here either. We've got limited info on Anderson, but he's played enough of the tour that we've got a fairly good idea of where he's at, and he's floating in such a spot where the model is saying that Brendan's got between a one in three and one in four shot. Brendan's 11/5 at a best price. Most things point to the idea that Brendan should be towards the better part of that range from his perspective, so I won't be betting on this one either.

So nothing right now. I might wait and see if there's any crazy Irish money flying around given the nature of the schedule, if Marko drifts out to 3/1 I might take a small stab and post just before the event tomorrow, but don't count on it. For now, let's thank Luke Woodhouse for putting us into an alright position early into the event.

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