Monday, 30 December 2019

Worlds day 15 no bets

Slightly different post title, primarily on account of there being nothing I like. MvG first, and every stat I look at is pointing at around an 80/20 split in favour of the Dutchman, the 5/1 on Aspinall is moderately tempting, but it's surely a step too far and it's not that much of an edge. If it was 6/1, 13/2 or there abouts I might have a tiny stab, but that'd be about it. In the second one, I think the market's correctly adapted to Wright actually being quite good at darts after his emphatic performance against Luke Humphries, and being priced around a 55% underdog seems fine to me. I think it's more or less a coinflip, the best we have available is 13/10, that's not quite enough to recommend a bet, but it's not far off.

Generally it's a gun to head situation we take the underdogs. It isn't though, so we can just avoid the question completely. I think if you simply must have some action, then Wright +3.5 sets on Betfred has a bit more of a favourable price than most other bookies at 3/10, it's a big short odds I know, but I can't see Price blasting his way to a 6-2 or better victory.

One thing to mention - with only Nathan Aspinall left that wasn't a Premier League player, the Second/Third Division Darts seasons have come to a conclusion - in the second division, Ian White retains his title, a full point clear of Krzysztof Ratajski, with Jonny Clayton being the only other player to be over 50% of points won. In the second tier, a late run by Dimitri van den Bergh wasn't quite enough to displace Nathan Aspinall at the top, picking up an easy win over Josh Payne and running Nathan himself close enough, Nathan does win it by less than two tenths of a point, while Keegan Brown and Max Hopp are also within half a point of the leaders. Who actually goes where as a result is still a bit unclear - I'm assuming that none of the top three in the second division actually get in the Premier League, while one (or both?) of the top two in the third division do, until Wednesday night it's going to be difficult to say for certain what the lineup will be, as nobody knows what the PDC are actually going to do with it.

Edit - I've just noticed that Hearn's said they're repeating the contenders. Presumably to avoid them having to make tough decisions and/or to give Sherrock even more airtime.

As an aside, has anyone made their mind up as to whether Toni Alcinas has a tour card or not?

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