Monday, 16 December 2019

Worlds day 5 bets

We've got all of Tuesday's fixtures lined up already, so rather than scramble eight games after tonight's session, let's have a look in advance to see what we want to do with them, nobody's talked me into a Kantele hero punt (and the line hasn't changed either), so let's get straight onto Tuesday, starting with the afternoon session:

Searle v King - 0.1u King 5/1, this is very much a flyer, but there is a little bit of logic to it. The standard of the international qualifiers this year has improved yet again, even those qualifiers that are priced at these sorts of odds, or even worse, so while we've not seen King yet, it's not offputting. Secondly, the nature of King - the Oceanic Masters, and the Aussie circuit in general, is tough, and we've not seen many complete mugs in the past. Finally, Searle isn't exactly coming in with incredible form. Searle should be favoured, and ought to win, but 5/1 looks way too long.

Reyes v Ilagan - This is tempting, especially given how every single Asian player so far has outperformed expectations (possibly Lim excepted, but Woodhouse be good at darts), but we're not getting the best of prices at 6/4 on Lourence. Reyes has picked up a bit of form of late as well, so while this ought to be fairly close, I can't say with enough confidence that Ilagan vastly outperforms the 40% we need to win here.

Rodriguez v Malicdem - This is different though, 0.25u Malicdem 21/20, and there's a couple of reasons why. Firstly, Rowby has yet to show that he's got the completely awful game out the system, so it could be maybe one in three where we instantly win regardless of how well Noel plays. Secondly, Rowby's probably worse than Cristo, and Noel's probably better than Lourence, which is good enough for me.

Ratajski v Lerchbacher - You could have got 1/2 Ratajski as a conditional bet against Lerchbacher before Zoran beat Jamie Hughes. Oh well. That would have been a great play, 3/10, not so much, depending on what sample you're using, Krzysztof's anywhere between a 1/3 to 1/5 favourite for this one, so there's not real value, and given Zoran has shown that his A-game is still available, I wouldn't even call it acca safe for those who are that way inclined.

Edhouse v Koltsov - Evening session now, and we go with another international qualifier, 0.25u Koltsov 11/8, we've seen enough of both Boris and Ritchie from their Pro Tour outings that we can be fairly confident in assessment of their games, and I'm thinking season long that Boris is no worse than a flip against Ritchie. Koltsov probably has the higher peak as well, and he's even got more big stage experience, so I'll go with this.

de Sousa v Heta - Game of the round, and I'll go with yet another international qualifier, 0.25u Heta 9/4. Obviously I know de Sousa is really fucking good, but is he that much better than someone who's won a TV title this season that he wins this match more than two times out of three? I'm not so sure, Damon's a very competent player, and while Jose easily has the game to blow him away 3-0, Damon's done everything right to date in his preparation and I think is certainly worth the shot at this price.

Evetts v Sherrock - No bet here. It's a really, really big price on Fallon, and if I knew for sure that she'd be able to recreate what she did in the qualifier, then I'd be all over the 9/1 that's being presented. But the difference between this game and last night's Mikuru game is that Sherrock is worse than Suzuki, and Evetts is probably one of the most underrated players on the planet, and I'd certainly take him over Richardson. No thanks.

de Zwaan v Young - Nothing here either. Darin's kind of freerolling, and has shown that when he gets towards the finish line he's not suddenly going to start to feel the pressure, so I don't want to start investing in Jeffrey at shorter than 1/4. Young having a 20% shot at this one doesn't seem a ridiculous statement, even if Jeffrey is a lot better than Barney is right now. Just needs some solid holds, a big out from nowhere to break, and all of a sudden you're two sets down, and Young's certainly capable of that.

So, four international picks. Let us know your thoughts, but one thing that I want to mention is something that @jetze_jan (decent follow by the way) on Twitter pointed out, in that the PDPA posted up something to the effect of that if someone (Barney this means you) in the top 64 doesn't take up their tour card for 2020, that place will go to Q-School qualifiers. Now, this might have changed in the last two years, where Taylor's retirement bumped Schindler up into the tour card places, it might not have, but I'm pretty sure I'd have noticed if the rules had changed. Sure enough, Jetze tweeted again earlier today to say that the post was deleted, and it now says the 2020 rules will be confirmed shortly. I'm sure Toni Alcinas will be pleased to know that this is all under control and finalised, and that the governance of the sport's leading organisation is once again beyond question.

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