Tuesday, 17 December 2019

Worlds day 6 bets

That Sherrock analysis aged well. God damnit Robbie King. Still, Damon Heta and Noel Malicdem keep us moving onwards and upwards, de Zwaan and Young are still playing as I start writing this, but let's start looking at Wednesday's action:

Meulenkamp v Robb - 0.5u Meulenkamp 5/11, Ron's had a really solid season on the Pro Tour, and while Ben could well be better than I expect, which would continue a trend of the international qualifiers being better than first forecast, I can't really see it being to the extend where he beats Meulenkamp one in three. This ought to be very safe.

Mansell v Asada - 0.5u Asada 5/6, Seigo's part of the really, really good section of the Asian Tour qualifiers, Mansell's lucky to be here, this really doesn't seem like a flip in the slightest. This is the same Asada that beat Ratajski and pushed Wade all the way last year, let's not forget.

Ward v Razma - Tricky one to forecast this. Razma seems favoured enough in my projections, but his range is so polarised, I think we still need to go 0.25u Razma 4/5, if only because he has a clear higher peak and I'm thinking Ward's a bit overrated on account of having won a Pro Tour perhaps somewhat fortunately. It's not as if the projections are close to the line, they see Razma as a 2-1 favourite, so if you think it's off on account on him hitting a lot of real good legs and several bad ones, it's got a lot to move.

Bunting v Perales - Last Jose standing is Justicia? Really? Oh well. Nothing on this one, Bunting's 3/10, which I think is possibly small value, backed up by his good tournament last time out, but it's not by a huge amount, I'm thinking he should be around 1/4, maybe 2/9, so no need to chase what'd be a fairly small margin.

Wilson v Kurz - 0.1u Kurz 11/5, small flyer. What we've seen from Nico in relatively limited action has looked good, from what we've seen from Wilson this season, not so much, although if he is over the worst of things and getting back to his best then he may be able to close this out enough that it's bad, so just the micro punt here.

Payne v Portela - No bet on this one. We've not seen enough of Portela to really judge where his game is at, but I don't think it's really good enough to be able to trouble Payne that often. Then again, with the relatively mediocre season Josh has had, I don't want to be getting involved at near 1/3 on, that just seems like a recipe for disaster.

Clemens v van de Pas - No bet on this one either. Benito's just about done enough that he may even be slightly better value than the 5/2 that's being thrown about, he was mentioning recently that he's tweaked some things which might be working, he's come through the qualifiers so maybe he's right. Gabriel *should* have more than enough, but we've seen enough weird stuff so far that I won't be putting money on it.

Wade v Edhouse - Will pass on this one as well. 2/9 on Wade looks to be just about enough, if it was any shorter I might have been tempted with a micro stab at Ritchie, albeit despite his win tonight rather than because of it, it certainly trends more towards Edhouse on shorter samples, but you really, really have to think that with White gone, Wade just steps in and reaches the quarters with no real troubles at all.

So we have four bets, one good odds on shot, two flips and a bit of an underdog shot in the dark, let's see how things go, Darin's hanging around against de Zwaan so maybe there's another upset coming?

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