Friday, 13 December 2019

Worlds day 2 bets

Not nice to start off on a loss, Luke hit some nice shots at key moments for sure, but Devon had his chances to close the game out and will surely be a bit disappointed with how the game turned out. In the other games, it's all about Jelle Klaasen - suffering a minor scare early against Burness but then progressing, and giving MvG something to think about for a good set and a half, van Gerwen hitting a 170 to bink the second set, and then a 130 out, also ending on the bull, to clinch the match for all intents and purposes. That leaves Huybrechts and Nentjes, the first game to go to a deciding set, Nentjes definitely had his chances as well but Kim was able to do just enough (including a 164 kill for no real reason, other than that he could) to get through. Eight games tomorrow, both Huybrechts and Humphries are back in action along with another six first round games, what do we have?

Labanauskas v Edgar 2 - Electric Boogaloo - Market favours the Lithuanian, slightly more than 60/40, which I think is the sort of price we can avoid. It's a weird one - season long, the projections I have rate Darius at around 70/30, which we can bet, but closer polls, if we say from after the Matchplay onwards, put Edgar at around 55/45. Do you favour form or class? Fortunately, we can just pick neither.

Meikle v Yamada - Ryan's strongly odds on, which feels about right, the rest of the Asian lads that are here are all going to be competitive, but Yamada feels like he's been tacked on through the back door and is a bit behind the pace. At shorter than 1/3 I can't really recommend a punt on Ryan, he's got enough game that he should win this comfortably, but you never know how someone's going to adapt to a big stage, and the rewards just aren't worth the potential risks.

Woodhouse v Lim - Another similar game, and this one is priced incredibly close to call. We know much more about Lim than we do Yamada, but we know enough about Woodhouse to think that 0.25u Woodhouse 5/6 seems sensible enough. Luke probably won't have it all his own way, but has shown enough over the course of the year to make me think he should be a bit more of a favourite than that. I kind of hope I'm wrong as I'd love another Paul Lim story to develop, but I've got to follow what I think looks like value.

Wattimena v Humphries - This should be a good contest, but one where I think there's a bet - 0.25u Wattimena 19/20, I can kind of see why they price this up fairly evenly, but come on now, Jermaine's in the top 20 in the world for a reason. Season long, I'm seeing Jermaine about 55/45, which in and of itself wouldn't be enough to bet, but it cuts to 60/40 and even stronger the more and more we look at form, so we'll go with it.

McGeeney v Campbell - They're loving McGeeney in this one, pricing at around the 75/25 mark. This seems about right to me, Matt I don't think has really done enough or been convincing enough to suggest he can grab this more than the one in four he'd need to in order to back him at the price we have. Then again, you don't qualify for the PDC worlds if you're a complete mug, and Mark's not set the scene on fire quite enough that I'm going to fire at 3/10 against anyone really.

Hughes v Lerchbacher - Same price in this one. Looks about right to me. Year long this is 80/20 Hughes, there's bits of samples where Zoran climbs to around 70/30, or maybe even a little bit better, but there's not enough convincing information to make me think there's value. Jamie should be comfortable, but there's enough level of potential weirdness that I'll leave this alone.

van Barneveld v Young - This one's even shorter. It's so tempting to go with Darin at a shade under 5/1, he's not lacking for experience and isn't going to just give the game away, but if there's one tournament where Barney isn't going to leave anything on the table it's going to be his last one. Simple enough avoid for me.

Cross v Huybrechts - Rob's almost as short against Kim as Raymond is against Darin. I don't really think that's fair. Year long, it probably is, but if I cut out, say, the first three months of the year, then Kim's chances look a heck of a lot better than what the market suggests. Hell, if I just look at the last three months, their winning and losing averages are *identical*, right down to the hundredth of a point (obv Cross has more sample and a better win percentage), and it looks awfully flippy. 0.1u Huybrechts 7/2, seems it's worth the stab to me.

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