Thursday, 19 December 2019

Worlds day 8 bets

Thank fuck Noppert got us out of today's hole to some degree. Also, as I posted on Twitter just now, if Barry really wants to give the ladies opportunities to prove themselves against the men, why doesn't he just offer the BDO world champ a tour card? One card out of 128 (suppose it becomes two after a year) is no worse than reserving two places in a field of 96 to your premier event, if you're the best of the best in your particular field, then why not say you have two years to prove you can cut it week in week out. If convincing is needed, just waive any tour card holders can't play in BDO televised events (if they still exist in six months) for ladies' events.

Day 8, and it's the day I'm there! Pretty excited I have to say, although I really wanted to see Hopp v Clemens. Fuck you Benito. What do we actually have?

Webster v Yamada - While it's incredibly tempting to just bet on Yamada on account of him not being Darren Webster, and 10/3 is awfully tempting, I'm not sure he really did enough in the opening game to make me think he can nick this enough to make this a sensible investment. It wouldn't surprise me if he did, but I think Darren's game is still just about solid enough that he ought to close this game out round about where the line is.

King v Teehan - This is a tough one to call. Ciaran's price at just the right side of 2/1. Given everything we've seen of King over the year, and the limited amount we've seen from Ciaran prior to this tournament, I'd be tempted with a bit of Mervyn here, but Teehan looked a fair bit better in the first round than he has done previously. Gun to my head I probably still think Mervyn's the better side, but there's enough uncertainty to avoid the whole spot.

Clayton v Dekker - Jan's straight back tomorrow against Jonny Clayton, and he's only 2/1? That's pretty comical if you ask me, 0.5u Clayton 5/11, regular readers will know that I'm of the opinion that Jonny's underrated generally speaking, and this continues here, this looks like more of a 75/25 or 80/20 game looking at all the evidence. Jan didn't do anything special this afternoon to make me think otherwise.

Evans v McGeeney - Good old tour card on tour card violence here, and the market has it quite close, with Ricky being just the tiny favourite. I can see where they're coming at with this one, Evans only just scraped into the seedings and McGeeney has form over longer formats, but it looks round about correct to me. Maybe there's the slightest of value on Mark, but it's really not worth pushing.

Aspinall v Baggish - To the evening we go and I'll probably be half cut by this stage, Nathan's the big favourite here, so naturally it's correct to look at whether Danny can pull this out often enough. I'm inclined to say no - he got several of his legs in scrappy, slow affairs, which he simply won't (or, at least, shouldn't) be able to do against someone of Nathan's calibre. Plus, I really can't back against a Stockport native when I'm there.

Cullen v Kurz - Wow. This is a lot closer than I thought it would be. Cullen's the right side of 1/2? Nico played well, but I'm not sure he played that well. Joe's shown a fair bit of class and ought to be able to deal with what could be somewhat of a partizan crowd if what I think'll happen will happen, 0.25u Cullen 8/15, would probably go a bit larger but Kurz's data is still somewhat limited.

Hopp v van de Pas - 0.25u Hopp 8/11, Benito I think got away with one yesterday, the price is favourable, and it should be really favourable conditions for Max to progress. I'm very, very tempted to go half a unit, but I'll temper the yolo urges in case what I said yesterday is correct and Benito has actually turned a corner. Probably just leaving money on the table, but being cautious with Hopp might not be the worst idea.

Wright v Malicdem - Can't really justify going for Noel. Against most players I'd take the stab, but Peter's been extremely good over the last few months and I think there's enough instances where he just shuts the door by rolling out with several fifteen darters in a row. Noel beat Rowby but didn't need to perform that well to do so, he's got extra gears but it would have been nice if he'd shown them in order to think about going for it against a top level player.

Going to roll out Saturday's picks shortly, keep 'em peeled.

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