Monday 27 April 2020

Home Tour 13-16

Ahhhh, thank you Tabern, that was nice value you can eat. I don't know what the market were thinking putting Whitlock at odds on for the group (heck, Tabern was actually longer than MvD and Shepherd on Betfair, which is unbelievable), but we'll take it. Currently watching Hogan against O'Shea to see who'll play Richardson, if it's Hogan that should be a quality final, heck it won't be bad either way. Just hope Paul doesn't, when trying to set up from 174, keep staying on 20's to pad the 140 count with his last dart...

Groups 13-16 now announced. Pretty disrespectful of them to refer to Beaton as simply "experienced" in their opening paragraph of the announcement, but there you go, in terms of what we've got we have:

Beaton/Edgar/Rydz/Wilkinson - Probably worth a view for Prime Time bantz, it shouldn't be bad with Beaton and Rydz in there. Just looking at Betfair, they've put Steve 11/8 with Rydz second favourite at 5/2, that feels about right (and it feels like a fair chunk of vig with Edgar at 3/1 as well), so I think I'll avoid that group from a betting perspective.

Dobey/Teehan/Meulenkamp/KFL - Kai really should come out to the KLF, and I'm thinking that him, or Ron, is going to be the value. We love Dobey here, but Kai seems pretty underrated and was putting up some very nice darts prior to lockdown, so with Chris just a shade shorter than evens and Kai/Ron both 3/1 or better, I think that's where the value is.

Webster/Brooks/Baker/Hamilton - God, this one's going to be hard to call. Baker's very hit and miss, Brooks is hard to call, Andy's done alright in spots and Darren's had that one good game against Adie but been on a real barren spell since then. Oddly this isn't on the Betfair board, but I'd guess something like Webster 7/4, Hammer 5/2, Baker 3/1 and Brooks 4/1 or something in that region? Wouldn't really want to touch the lineup at all to be honest.

Evans/Atkins/Bunse/Smith - The one player I'm not touching in this group is Evans, at evens that's too short - Smith's 15/8 and probably playing the better darts right now, Bunse at 9/2 might be worth a small poke. The lay on Ricky appears the safest thing.

Looking down a bit more, that Webster group has the individual match markets up, Darren's the favourite in all of them, but only 8/11 against each of Andy and Scott and then 8/13 against Bradley, so I guess they probably mark it up 2/1 Darren, 5/2 each of Scott and Andy then 4/1 Bradley? No idea how much vig that is but it's probably about right.

Have set up the match calculator for the knockout stages of the TA Pro Tour. I've tweaked it to calculate leg by leg, and rather than having the consistency count over the whole match, by necessity I've moved it to each point difference moving the win percentage by one. That seems about right in comparison to what I had been doing for the shorter tour stage. Won't do any tonight, but will probably reveal the play in games tomorrow.

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